Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2006. / Although most businesses require accurate sales forecasts in order to survive and to
be successful, very little attention has been devoted to examine how sales
forecasting processes should be managed, and the behavioural factors associated
with the management of forecasting.
Sales forecasting activities and research have by and large concentrated on the
techniques or on the systems used, rather than on the forecasting management
philosophy, which considers the organisational, procedural, and personnel aspects of
the process.
Both forecasting modelling and IT systems form the basis for the forecasting process,
but the third element, namely the organisation, is potentially the most important one.
Researchers have argued that improvements in this area could have a greater impact
on the level of forecasting accuracy than improvements with regard to other aspects.
After developing predetermined forecasting standards and principles, an audit on the
author's organisation was conducted. This revealed that no formal forecasting --- existed, and that a number of business practices were in effect contaminating
procedures and possibly affecting the integrity of the data. Very little forecasting
knowledge existed, sales were predicted very sporadically, and simple averaging
techniques were adopted. Life cycles of products, trends, seasonality or any other
cyclical activity were never modelled.
This obviously resulted in a very poor level of forecast accuracy, affecting a number
of business activities.
A decision was made to research the topic of forecasting management, develop a
best practice model, and apply it to the organisation.
The best practice model was based predominantly on the research work of
Armstrong and Mentzer. This model requires the forecasting process to be developed
in two specific phases, namely a strategic phase, in which the forecast is aligned to
the organisation, the internal processes and the people, and the operational phase,
in which more tangible aspects of the forecasting process are identified and
constructed.
This new forecasting approach and a dedicated forecasting software programme
were successfully implemented, improving the overall accuracy level of the forecast.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:sun/oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/21980 |
| Date | 12 1900 |
| Creators | Postiglioni, Renato |
| Contributors | Smit, E.v.d.M., Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Graduate School of Business. |
| Publisher | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| Source Sets | South African National ETD Portal |
| Language | en_ZA |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis |
| Format | 66 p. : ill. |
| Rights | Stellenbosch University |
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