有鑑於產險業特別準備金制度爭議已久，應於何時提存或收回似乎已成了保險業界與保險司之間的角力賽。本研究採用傳統精算中破產理論(Ruin Theory)的概念，並觀察火災保險、貨物運輸保險、漁船保險與任意汽車保險等四個不同損失分配的險別進行蒙地卡羅模擬(Monte Carlo Simulation)，得出各個險種最適的特別準備金提存率。本文使人更容易了解因各險種具備的特性不同，在相同的破產機率水準下，會因為危險程度不同以及自留保費收入相對於自留賠款間的關係，間接影響到最適特別準備金的提存額度。
本研究的實證模擬分析結果發現：整體而言，目前產險業應提存的特別準備金總額大致上已充足，但是，若以各險別應提列的特別準備金額度而言，任意汽車保險有滯留過多的情形，而漁船保險則明顯地不充足，因此，目前應重新估算各險別應提存的特別準備金，暫時以各險可「相互浥注」的概念，使各險種調整至適當的比率，一併轉入「淨值」項下的「特別公積」科目，而「負債」項所剩餘的「特別準備金」餘額應逐年攤銷；建議今後特別準備金必須以「差額補足法」的會計處理方式，並按各個險種「專款專用」為原則。 / Much debate has devoted about the issue of the contingency reserve in property insurance companies in Taiwan over the past decades and how to calculate the appropriate amount of the reserve has become a perplexing problem between insurance companies and regulators. This paper conducts the Ruin Theory and comes up with the optimal model for calculating the contingency reserve. By using Monte Carlo Simulation method, we collect four different lines data in Fire, Marine cargo. Fishing vessel and Motor insurance to calculate the optimal contingency reserve ratio in each line. In addition, we examine the effect of different contingency reserve systems on insurance company's financial statements. Our results imply that owing to the different loss distribution in each line, the different level of risk and the ratio of retention premium to retention claim will indirectly affect the optimal contingency reserve under the identical ruin probability level.
Our findings indicate that the overall contingency reserve of property insurance company is sufficient at present, but the amount is not sufficient for each line. For example, the reserve in motor insurance is over-reserved while that in fishing vessel insurance is not adequate. We, therefore; suggest that the contingency reserve should be re-estimated by each line. At present, we suggest to use the "inter-line-compensation" principle to make up the insufficient reserve for different line. However, the contingency reserve should be credited as "special fund" of Surplus when the reserve in each line is at the adequate level and the over-reserved amount of "special claim's reserve" should be amortized year by year. Moreover, We suggest to applying the "marginal contribution" method for calculating contingency reserve and establish an individual account for the contingency reserve for each line.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/A2010000385 |
| Creators | 沈美岑 |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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