The spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) has raised
major health policy questions. Direct transmission via respiratory droplets seems to be the dominant
route of its transmission. However, indirect transmission via shared contact of contaminated objects
may also occur. The contribution of each transmission route to epidemic spread might change during
lock-down scenarios. Here, we simulate viral spread of an abstract epidemic considering both routes
of transmission by use of a stochastic, agent-based SEIR model. We show that efficient contact tracing
(CT) at a high level of incidence can stabilize daily cases independently of the transmission route long
before effects of herd immunity become relevant. CT efficacy depends on the fraction of cases that do
not show symptoms. Combining CT with lock-down scenarios that reduce agent mobility lowers the
incidence for exclusive direct transmission scenarios and can even eradicate the epidemic. However,
even for small fractions of indirect transmission, such lockdowns can impede CT efficacy and increase
case numbers. These counterproductive effects can be reduced by applying measures that favor
distancing over reduced mobility. In summary, we show that the efficacy of lock-downs depends on
the transmission route. Our results point to the particular importance of hygiene measures during
mobility lock-downs.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:DRESDEN/oai:qucosa:de:qucosa:92906 |
| Date | 05 August 2024 |
| Creators | Thalheim, Torsten, Krüger, Tyll, Galle, Jörg |
| Publisher | MDPI AG |
| Source Sets | Hochschulschriftenserver (HSSS) der SLUB Dresden |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion, doc-type:article, info:eu-repo/semantics/article, doc-type:Text |
| Rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
| Relation | 1660-4601, 10.3390/ijerph192114011 |
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