摘要
1980年代至90年代初期，東亞各國成為全球經濟重要的發展區域之一，泰國、馬來西亞、印尼、菲律賓等繼亞洲四小龍之後成為亞洲地區成長迅速的新興開發中國家。然而，自1995年起，東南亞各國經濟開始出現衰退現象，1997年7月泰國更出現泰銖貶值，匯價劇跌，造成泰國股市的崩盤，傳染性的匯率貶值壓力延伸至菲律賓、馬來西亞、印尼與新加坡，甚至連東北亞的韓國，日本、台灣與香港也受波及，使得整個東亞地區幾乎都遭受到金融風暴的衝擊。
因此本研究針對1984至2002年的東亞國家，採用資料包絡分析法探討亞洲金融風暴對東亞各國效率的影響，利用Malmquist指數計算分析生產力變動的來源，以研究東亞各國在歷經金融風暴後如何調整其生產力及效率。
本研究依東亞各國受金融風暴影響的程度分為金融風暴國以及非金融風暴國兩大群組，實證結果顯示，東亞地區國家之整體技術效率值以及純技術效率值於金融風暴發生後有提升的現象，相較於金融風暴國於風暴前後之整體技術效率值以及生產力變動有顯著差異，非金融風暴國則未發生此一現象。本研究利用國內固定資本形成毛額作為投入要素與實質國內生產毛額作為產出項所構成的效率前緣曲線圖，分析解釋前述現象，發現金融風暴國在風暴前確實有投資過剩的問題，風暴後金融風暴國效率的提升來自於調整其生產規模、減少不當投資。
此外，本研究發現中國大陸的生產力在金融風暴後有逐年衰退的趨勢，其主要原因是來自於規模變動的不利影響，意味著中國大陸在展現高度經濟成長的同時，似乎已產生供給過剩的現象，是否會為日後的經濟發展帶來隱憂，甚至成為二次亞洲金融風暴的起源，值得注意。 / Abstract
From the1980s to early 1990s, East Asia became one of the most important areas in developing the global economy. Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Philippine’s economy grew up fast and became the newly developing country following the Four little Dragons in Asia. However, since 1995, the economy of various countries in Southeast Asia began to decline. In July 1997 Thailand’s Thai Baht and exchange rate depreciated dramatically and crash of the Thai stock market. Then the Tai Baht currency depreciation rapidly spread to Philippine, Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore; even South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and Hong Kong were involved in the crisis. As a result, the whole East Asia nearly all suffered this financial storm.
Today, most of Asian countries are recovered from the Asia crisis. In order to analyze how East Asian countries to overcome the Asian financial crisis and adjust their productivity and efficiency, this study uses a panel data of 15 East Asian countries through 1984 to 2002 to apply data envelopment analysis (DEA) to assess the effects of the Asia financial crisis and measure the Malmquist productivity index to analyze the sources of the change in efficiency.
The study breaks down the East Asian countries into two groups, Asian-crisis countries and non-Asian-crisis countries, depending on the extent to which they were affected by the Asian financial crisis. The major findings of this paper are as follows. The full samples denote that after crisis era the overall technical efficiency and the pure technical efficiency are higher than that of before crisis era. The further analysis demonstrates that such phenomenon only can be found in Asian-crisis group. This study constructs a two dimensions efficiency frontier curve graph by using gross fixed capital formation and gross domestic product as input and output proxy to analyze the efficiency change to help to explain the above phenomenon. The frontier efficiency curves find that the Asian-crisis countries indeed have over investment problem before the crisis, and the improvement of efficiencies after crisis is due to successful downsizing, such as reducing production scale and improper investments.
In addition, this study illustrates that the productivity change in China has a tendency of declining over the last couple of years. The main reason comes from the unfavorable change in scale efficiency. The high economic growth accompanies over supply in China which reveals the similar phenomenon in Asia-crisis countries before the crisis. Therefore, it is worth to take a notice that whether the growth phenomenon in China becomes the source of the second Asian financial crisis in the future.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0923530351 |
| Creators | 潘思翰, Pan, Zsu-han |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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