本研究利用DEA的效率衡量工具，分析球隊可能的解散因素，推論台灣職業棒球之市場機制。根據效率估計的結果約略可將台灣職業棒球二十年的發展分成三個時點，1990年至1997年—第一次簽賭爆發前：效率值呈現遞減的現象；1998年至2002年—兩聯盟共存期：多數的球隊呈現經營績效不佳；2003年至2009年—兩聯盟合併後時期：球隊普遍的經營績效均拉升。 Tobit迴歸分析結果顯示兩聯盟共存對經營績效有負向影響，二軍制度則對球隊的經營績效有正向影響，但令人訝異的是觀眾數對經營績效有負向的影響。存活分析結果推論觀眾數、球隊經營績效為影響球隊存續最重要的兩個因素。資料比對的結果符合上述Tobit迴歸及存活分析之結論，強化在DEA、Tobit、存活分析的推論結果。總而言之，台灣職業棒球市場經營機制尚未健全，本研究將其稱為「半人為市場機制」。台灣職棒必須進行改革，避免非市場因素介入市場運作，台灣棒球產業的未來才有發展性。 關鍵字：職業棒球、DEA效率分析、績效分析、Tobit迴歸分析、存活分析 / In this study, we use DEA efficiency measurement as a tool to analyze the survival of teams in the Taiwanese professional baseball market. According to the efficiency measurement results, one can divide the development of the Taiwanese professional baseball teams in the last twenty years into the following three periods: first, from 1990 to 1997—the outbreak of the first gambling scandal, overall efficiency performance was falling; second, from 1998 to 2002—when two professional leagues coexisted, overall efficiency performance was at the lowest; third, from 2003 to 2009—after two leagues were merged, significant improvement in terms of efficiency performance was observed. Tobit regression results suggest that the coexistence of two professional leagues has negative impact to the efficiency performance of teams while the introduction of the minor league system has positive impact to the efficiency performance. Surprisingly, the number of audience who attended baseball games has negative effect on the efficiency performance. The results from survival analysis identified the number of audience who attended baseball games and efficiency performance are the two main factors for the survival of a baseball team. A detailed data analysis confirms the Tobit regression and survival study results. In general, the market mechanism is yet well-developed. Non-market factors often affect the development of baseball teams and their survival. Drastic reforms and changes are required for the future development of the professional baseball market. Keywords: Professional Baseball, DEA Efficiency Analysis, Performance Analysis, Tobit Regression Analysis, Survival Analysis

為了加入世界貿易組織，台灣早已自80年代逐步進行金融自由化的工作：早在1983年政府就擴大存放款利差，1984年允許銀行根據其個別情況制定基本放款利率並放寬本國銀行設立分行的家數與條件。然而金融自由化最重大的里程碑則是在1989年7月財政部修訂銀行法，開放新銀行設立並解除利率管制，自此之後台灣才真正成為金融自由化的國家。 本研究針對1986年到2002年的本國銀行，採用資料包絡分析法計算效率值，旨在探討台灣銀行業在開放新銀行設立前後的效率與生產力變動情形。不同於其他研究僅以年度為基礎來計算相對效率值，本研究使用「大邊界」的觀念建構出單一效率邊界，更能顯示出在一致的比較基礎上效率變動的趨勢。本研究的主要結果如下： 1.銀行業全體與開放前既存之舊銀行，在開放前的效率值均顯著大於開放後。至於開放後新舊銀行效率的比較，新銀行的整體技術效率與規模效率較高，舊銀行則在純技術效率上領先新銀行，但檢定結果僅有規模效率一項為顯著。 2.金控子銀行的效率值較非金控子銀行為高，顯示金控公司會挑選表現好的銀行作為合作夥伴。 3.在生產力分析部分，舊銀行開放後的總生產力仍小於開放前，儘管舊銀行在開放後的各項經營效率變動較開放前高，但因技術的大幅衰退以致整體生產力仍呈現衰退現象。顯示舊銀行雖然在效率上有所改善，但對於營運上的創新仍太過保守。 4.在Tobit迴歸分析的部分，股東權益報酬率、資產規模、流動準備率和效率值的關係為正向；分行家數、可控制費用、催收款比率和效率值的關係則為負向。 關鍵詞：銀行業、效率分析、資料包絡分析法、解除管制 / In order to join World Trade Organization, Taiwan has been gradually liberating its banking industry since 1980s. In 1983 Taiwan augmented the interest difference between loans and savings in banking industry. In 1984 Taiwan allowed a bank to set its own basic interest rate of loans base on business difference and reduced the restriction of setting up the new branches. The biggest leap was in 1989, Taiwan passed the new banking law which deregulated the banking industry. The new law opened the market for the new entrants and abandoned the interest regulation. The purpose of this research is to examine the efficiency and productivity changes before and after deregulation of Taiwan’s banking industry. This research applies Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) approach to measure efficiency scores. The data include most of the domestic banks in Taiwan from 1986 to 2002. Unlike other research use yearly basis to measure relative efficiency difference, this research constructs a single efficiency frontier, grand frontier, to measure the trends of efficiency changes. The major findings of this research as follows. 1. The statistical results of the full sample exhibit that the efficiency measures before deregulation are statistically significant greater than that of after deregulation. Although the new entrants exhibit higher efficiency scores in total technical efficiency and scale efficiency than incumbents after deregulation, however, only scale efficiency indicates statistically significant level. Incumbents exhibit a higher pure technical efficiency than the new entrants after deregulation. 2. Banks that joined the financial holding company exhibit higher efficient scores than those of do not join the financial holding company. 3. The total factor productivity denotes a regress after deregulation. The major factor of productivity regress is due to technology decrease. However, the efficiency change of incumbent banks exhibits a significant increase after deregulation. The finding suggests that although the incumbent banks have significant improvements in efficiency, they are still too conservative in innovations. 4. The Tobit regression suggests that return on equity (ROE), total assets, and current-reserve ratio have a positive effect on efficiency measures; however, the number of branches, controllable expenses, and bad debt ratio have a negative effect on efficiency measures. Keywords: Bank industry, Efficiency analysis, Data envelopment analysis, Deregulation

摘要 1980年代至90年代初期，東亞各國成為全球經濟重要的發展區域之一，泰國、馬來西亞、印尼、菲律賓等繼亞洲四小龍之後成為亞洲地區成長迅速的新興開發中國家。然而，自1995年起，東南亞各國經濟開始出現衰退現象，1997年7月泰國更出現泰銖貶值，匯價劇跌，造成泰國股市的崩盤，傳染性的匯率貶值壓力延伸至菲律賓、馬來西亞、印尼與新加坡，甚至連東北亞的韓國，日本、台灣與香港也受波及，使得整個東亞地區幾乎都遭受到金融風暴的衝擊。 因此本研究針對1984至2002年的東亞國家，採用資料包絡分析法探討亞洲金融風暴對東亞各國效率的影響，利用Malmquist指數計算分析生產力變動的來源，以研究東亞各國在歷經金融風暴後如何調整其生產力及效率。 本研究依東亞各國受金融風暴影響的程度分為金融風暴國以及非金融風暴國兩大群組，實證結果顯示，東亞地區國家之整體技術效率值以及純技術效率值於金融風暴發生後有提升的現象，相較於金融風暴國於風暴前後之整體技術效率值以及生產力變動有顯著差異，非金融風暴國則未發生此一現象。本研究利用國內固定資本形成毛額作為投入要素與實質國內生產毛額作為產出項所構成的效率前緣曲線圖，分析解釋前述現象，發現金融風暴國在風暴前確實有投資過剩的問題，風暴後金融風暴國效率的提升來自於調整其生產規模、減少不當投資。 此外，本研究發現中國大陸的生產力在金融風暴後有逐年衰退的趨勢，其主要原因是來自於規模變動的不利影響，意味著中國大陸在展現高度經濟成長的同時，似乎已產生供給過剩的現象，是否會為日後的經濟發展帶來隱憂，甚至成為二次亞洲金融風暴的起源，值得注意。 / Abstract From the1980s to early 1990s, East Asia became one of the most important areas in developing the global economy. Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Philippine’s economy grew up fast and became the newly developing country following the Four little Dragons in Asia. However, since 1995, the economy of various countries in Southeast Asia began to decline. In July 1997 Thailand’s Thai Baht and exchange rate depreciated dramatically and crash of the Thai stock market. Then the Tai Baht currency depreciation rapidly spread to Philippine, Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore; even South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and Hong Kong were involved in the crisis. As a result, the whole East Asia nearly all suffered this financial storm. Today, most of Asian countries are recovered from the Asia crisis. In order to analyze how East Asian countries to overcome the Asian financial crisis and adjust their productivity and efficiency, this study uses a panel data of 15 East Asian countries through 1984 to 2002 to apply data envelopment analysis (DEA) to assess the effects of the Asia financial crisis and measure the Malmquist productivity index to analyze the sources of the change in efficiency. The study breaks down the East Asian countries into two groups, Asian-crisis countries and non-Asian-crisis countries, depending on the extent to which they were affected by the Asian financial crisis. The major findings of this paper are as follows. The full samples denote that after crisis era the overall technical efficiency and the pure technical efficiency are higher than that of before crisis era. The further analysis demonstrates that such phenomenon only can be found in Asian-crisis group. This study constructs a two dimensions efficiency frontier curve graph by using gross fixed capital formation and gross domestic product as input and output proxy to analyze the efficiency change to help to explain the above phenomenon. The frontier efficiency curves find that the Asian-crisis countries indeed have over investment problem before the crisis, and the improvement of efficiencies after crisis is due to successful downsizing, such as reducing production scale and improper investments. In addition, this study illustrates that the productivity change in China has a tendency of declining over the last couple of years. The main reason comes from the unfavorable change in scale efficiency. The high economic growth accompanies over supply in China which reveals the similar phenomenon in Asia-crisis countries before the crisis. Therefore, it is worth to take a notice that whether the growth phenomenon in China becomes the source of the second Asian financial crisis in the future.

近年來，由於金融產業的進步與科技的日新月異，越來越多樣的衍生性金融商品被廣泛使用，此類具有高獲利高槓桿的金融商品固然有避險的功能，另一方面也提高了銀行業的經營風險。巴塞爾委員會有鑑於此，大幅更動了早期巴塞爾資本協定的內容，稱為Basel II。 Basel II 的資本適足管制雖能避免金融機構發生倒閉之危機，但卻也影響金融機構之產出結構及品質，改變了金融機構之效率表現，因此，瞭解 Basel II 對金融機構效率表現之影響程度是本文目的之ㄧ，此外，有鑑於衍生性金融商品的高風險特性，本研究也將此變數加入，探討此兩項變數對本國銀行經營效率的影響為何。 本研究以資本適足率與衍生性商品使用量作為外生變數，以國內32家銀行為樣本，利用民國九十七年底之資料，採取三階段資料包絡分析法探討此兩項變數對銀行經營績效的影響。首先求算第一階段效率值，接下來考量資料截斷的特性，採用 Tobit 迴歸模型，計算差額變數並做調整，在第三階段排除其影響力，使所有決策單位在同一起跑點上再進行效率評估。 實證結果發現，資本適足率對於銀行效率的影響是有利的，而衍生性金融商品使用量則為不利因素，第一階段與第三階段的效率值在利用Wilcoxon 符號等級檢定之後的結果顯示第一階段與第三階段的效率值分布在0.5%的顯著水準下是不相同的，可進一步推論資本適足率與衍生性金融商品的使用量對銀行經營效率的影響十分顯著。