對於預測未來人口的死亡率，國外已有學者提出一些配適死亡率曲線的方法，但可以合適地配適台灣地區死亡率的方法則尚未有學者提出。且在所有的年齡層中，嬰幼兒及高齡人口死亡率的變化較不穩定，但高齡人口死亡率的變化對整個人口結構的影響較大，所以在本文中將只針對高齡人口的死亡率來做預測。
本篇文章利用：(1)SOA模型；(2)Lee-Carter模型；(3)Heligman-Pollard模型等三個國外常用的配適方法以及我們提出的一個新方法－「比值法」並利用迴歸分析及時間序列分析等統計方法來預測台灣地區的死亡率，再互相比較各個模型的預測誤差，以找出適合預測台灣地區高齡人口死亡率的模型。 / A few mathematical models used to fit mortality curve to project future mortality levels are proposed by demographer and statistician in recent years.However, the methods that can be used to appropriately fit the mortality curve in Taiwan have not been brought up yet. Among all other age groups, infants and elderly(60+) mortality change more dramatically than the other age group, as a result the latter has greater impact on the population structure for Taiwan. Hence, our projection focuses on the mortality of elderly population.
This research utilizes the following three fitting methods to project future mortality levels in Taiwan: SOA model; Lee-Carter model; Heligman-Pollard model and the one we proposed namely the "ratio method", along with the regression and time series analyses in order to project the mortality in Taiwan area. Finally, a better projection model is found by comparing the predicted errors between these models.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/B2002001562 |
| Creators | 張正鵬, Chang, Cheng-Peng |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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