隨著科技、醫療技術的進步，全世界的死亡率逐年下降，導致人口高齡化、扶老比逐年增加等問題，在這些問題下，退休老人是否有足夠的退休金來維持生活品質是每個人都很關心的議題。本論文探討反向房屋抵押貸款在台灣的應用來維持退休老人生活品質，在承做反向房屋抵押貸款得過程中，影響最大的三個因素分別為死亡率模型、房屋價值模型與利率模型。本論文中的死亡率模型採用Lee 與Carter 的死亡率模型；利率模型採用CIR-SR (Cox、Ingersoll 與Ross)模型；房價模型則是採用ARIMA 模型與布朗運動模型。最後利用台灣死亡率、利率與房價的資料進行模擬，針對各個不同的情境做分析，使用無套利的定價模型計算
反向房屋貸款在台灣的最適可貸金額。 / Progressions of technology and medical treatment has caused the dropping of death rates which raised the aging population problem. Under this circumstance, maintaining good quality of life after retirement is an issue that many of us concerned. This paper discusses how the use of reverse mortgage may help us to accomplish a
quality retirement life. In addition to that, we apply the Lee-Carter model, CIR-SR model, and ARIMA model to forecast mortality, interest rate, and house prices respectively. Finally, we use the statistic from Taiwan to simulate several scenarios, and then use the no arbitrage pricing model to find the best payments of reverse mortgage.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G1017510061 |
| Creators | 陳治宗, Chen, Chih Tzung |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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