因網際網路帶來的便利性與即時性，網路新聞成為社會大眾吸收與傳遞新聞資訊的重要管道之一，而累積的巨量新聞亦可反映出社會輿論對某特定新聞議題之即時反應、熱門程度以及情緒走向等。 因此，本研究期望借由意見探勘與情緒分析技術，從特定領域新聞中挖掘出有價值的關聯，並結合傳統機器學習建立一個房地產市場的預測模式，提供購屋決策的參考依據。
本研究搜集99年1月1日至103年6月30日共1,1150筆房地產新聞，以及8,165件捷運週邊250公尺內房屋買賣交易資料，運用意見探勘萃取意見詞彙進行情緒分析，並建立房市情緒與成交價量時間序列，透過半年移動平均、二次移動平均及成長斜率，瞭解社會輿情對房市行情抱持樂觀或悲觀，分析社會情緒與實際房地產成交間關聯性，以期能找出房地產買賣時機點，並進一步結合情緒及房地產的環境影響因素，藉由支援向量機建立站點房市的預測模型。
實證結果中，本研究發現房市情緒與成交價量之波動有一定的週期與相關性，且新捷運開通前一年將連帶影響整體捷運房市波動，當成交線穿越情緒線且斜率同時向上時，可做為適當的房市進場時機點。而本研究針對站點情緒與環境變數所建立之預測模型，其預測新捷運線站點之平均準確率為69.2％，而預測新捷運線熱門站點之準確率為78％，顯示模型於預測熱門站點上具有不錯的預測能力。 / Nowadays, E-News have become an important way for people to get daily information. These enormous amounts of news could reflect public opinions on a particular attention or sentiment trends in news topics. Therefore, how to use opinion mining and sentiment analysis technology to dig out valuable information from particular news becomes the latest issue.
In this study, we collected 1,1150 house news and 8,165 house transaction records around the MRT stations within 250 meters over the last five years. We extracted the emotion words from the news by manipulating opinion mining. Furthermore, we built moving average lines and the slope of the moving average in order to explore the relationship and entry point between public opinion and housing market.
In conclusion, we indicated that there is a high correlation between the news sentiment and housing market. We also uses SVM algorithm to construct a model to predict housing hotspots. The results demonstrate that the SVM model reaches average accuracy at 69.2% and the model accuracy increases up to 78% for predicting housing hotspots. Besides, we also provide investors with a basis of entry point into the housing market by utilizing the moving average cross overs and slopes analysis and a better way of predicting housing hotspots.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0102356025 |
| Creators | 吳佳芸, Wu, Chia Yun |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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