隨著資訊科技的發展與網際網路的普及，音樂與電影光碟盜版的問題也逐年嚴重，然影音盜版不僅影響權利人團體，影音業者及創作者之生存，亦攸關我國智慧財產之發展，更常成為我國在國際貿易諮商上的重要課題。在種種緣由與現況下，得使國內許多產、官、學、研團體想去研究影音盜版的相關議題，以了解其嚴重程度如何，或有無較客觀合理的指標或評估方式?並進一步研擬有效方法來防範盜版問題進一步惡化，為此上述問題乃是本研究之源起。
目前所有的影音盜版研究，多著重在計算盜版率,探討盜版因素,盜版行為的心理與法制問題，皆還尚未針對影音盜版率，建構出可供學者推論的盜版率機率分配，及其他相關的數量研究，因此，本研究的主要實証方向，乃根據2004年經濟部智慧財產局(intellectual property office ministry of economic affairs,R.O.C)委託政治大學之消費者調查資料，就音樂CD、影音VCD/DVD兩部分，針對筆者有興趣之變項(性別、年齡、有無上網下載等)，(1)分別建構各自的混合分配並了解其分配間的差異與趨勢， (2)探討消費者對盜版行為的態度，(3)了解消費者對喜好的光碟所願付價格之差異，(4)建立盜版率分配的信賴帶，以及(5)針對現有的調查資料進行盜版辨別。
最後，就查緝盜版與維護智慧財產權兩方面，實證分析提供政府相關單位作為參考的依據，以求擬訂周詳且完善的措施來防範日益惡化的盜版問題。 / With the development of computer technology and widespread of internet, the piracy problem goes more serious. The piracy situation makes much influence not only on the rights of international oblige societies but also the growing of the intellectual properties in Taiwan. Moreover, it becomes the rock on the road of international commercial negotiations. Beyond the serious situation in the mean time, more researchers and relevant organizations on the island are trying to pay more attention to this important issue. This research intends to understand several questions: How is the actual situation on the piracy problem? Are there any objective evaluation ways? Are there any effective policies to prevent it from going deeper? These questions lead to this research.
In the meantime, most of Audio & Video piracy research emphasized only on calculating the piracy rate, or the reasons, or the relevant psychological and law problems, but few on piracy quantitative studies. Therefore the mainly intention of this research is based on the data from the IPO(Intellectual Property Office Ministry of Economic Affairs, ROC), which is executing by National Chengchi University. As for the two parts concerning music CD and visual VCD/DVD, and the variables those I am highly interested including gender, age, education level, downloading or not.
The empirical study results show as below: (1)The piracy rate distribution corresponds with the Mixed Model, that mean that it have been proportionally mixed two degenerate distribution (while X=0 and 100) with the Normal distribution. (2) On the facets of distribution differences and trends analysis, not only music CD and visual VCD/DVD, the results of the research by Mann-Whitney test and Kolmogorov-Smirnov two sample test both reveal the rising tendency of overall piracy rate. The generation of 20~29 years old is the mainly pirate group, moreover, higher education grades group does the more pirating behaviors, and lower income group intends more unauthorized copying conducts. Furthermore, along with the development of internet technology, the infringement behavior is more serious on the network connectors than the non-network downloaders. (3) Under surveying the opinions of consumers about the piracy, regardless of whether music or movies, the deviation is more serious on male than female, under 30-year-old than above, low educated than high, low income than high, pirate than non-pirate, downloaders than non-downloaders. The problem locates not only the lack of the concepts and recognition on the intellectual properties rights, but also the scarce of moral or legal limitations on the unauthorized rebuilding or downloading. But in the other curious facet, although the higher grade educated groups got more equitable standpoints on the piracy discussion, but evidenced depend upon the collected data they are also mainly the group who did the piracy behaviors more. (4) On the price range that a consumer would like to pay for, most of the pirate consumer tends to pay low price to buy the A/V goods, most of the non-pirating consumer group tends to pay general price to buy ones, and no significant difference of these two groups with high price, (5) On the facets of confidence bands on the whole music CD and visual VCD/DVD pirating rate, because of the specialties of pirating data- the higher frequency while the piracy rate values 0 and 100, so that the upper and lower bound reveals at 0 and 100. Futhermore, the confidence bands obtains from the population distribution function, therefore it’s suitable for the goodness-of-fit test. The results met the Kolmogorov-Smirnov one sample test. (6) On the data recognition facets, the logistic regression model of piracy is constructed in this research. Classification from the fitted logistic regression models, the results reveals 107 non-pirate are mis-judged to pirating behaviors, 186 pirating samples are neglected to non-pirate ones, the correct recognition rate goes high of 88 %.
Key Words：Piracy Rate, Mixture Models, Mann-Whitney, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Logistic Regression Model, Nonparametric Statistics.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0913540151 |
| Creators | 邱奕傑, Chiu,Yi-Jye. |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 英文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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