近年來微機電系統之技術與產品發展迅速，所衍生之微型光譜儀技術與產品，具有架構簡單、元件數少、輕薄短小、性價比高等特點，可以解決傳統光譜分析儀器之應用困境，並可應用至諸多領域，受到各方重視。微機電產業與半導體產業相容的特性，被視為下階段成長動力；2003年光譜分析儀器產業發生兩件併購案，可見微小化光譜儀的技術與市場，備受光電與醫藥集團重視與期待。在此產業環境與時空背景下，微型光譜儀技術是否具有市場價值，其產品應用領域是否具有成長潛力，而其技術價值是否得以評估與衡量，是一個具有技術與市場意義的研究主題。
透過技術文獻與專利資料之搜尋，本研究追溯光譜分析儀器的技術沿革與演進、光柵設計與製程的改善，討論微型光譜儀之技術特點與發展趨勢；其次並蒐集主要應用領域產業之市場資訊，包含光電、環境、生醫、農業、色彩等產業，分析各主要應用市場規模與相關產業概況；最後根據技術生命週期與技術評價方法，以假設條件建立價值分析模型，並與產業研究報告及國際併購案例進行比較分析。
研究結果發現，微型光譜儀之技術趨勢包括光學架構力求簡化與扁平設計，先進的凹面繞射光柵採向量電磁波法演算與可量產之微機電製程，而訊號處理能力與偵測器特性將成為新技術競爭之關鍵；專利搜尋結果透露大型光譜儀廠商尚未積極切入，而掌握應用領域且具有關鍵製程能力者，將主導技術市場。
本研究也發現在微型光譜儀的應用市場中，生醫感測與環境檢測最具爆發潛力，十年內之市場規模分別可達到新台幣200億及100億元；農業食品與色彩管理之應用市場也具有相當吸引力，若能開發低價且方便使用之消費性檢測裝置，其市場規模皆可達到新台幣60億以上；而光電量測主要屬產業設備應用，屬於穩定成長市場，規模大約維持在10億以內。總和微型光譜儀之五大應用市場，其規模在2015年預估約為新台幣150億，並將於2020年成長一倍至新台幣300億元。
經由技術評價文獻、研究報告併購案例與分析結果，本研究認為微型光譜儀產業屬於成長期階段，適合採用淨現金流量折現法評估技術價值；而近十年之微小光譜儀產業之併購案例，除展現綜效外，其併購規模與內容也反映了其技術價值與評價方式所隱含之技術生命週期認定。
最後，本研究假設一具有關鍵技術之新創公司模型，並以淨現金流量折現法計算其技術價值，在技術貢獻度（研發費用比例）接近40 % 條件下，技術價值約末與長期稅後純益相當，且與專利貢獻度及營收成長幅度呈現高度正相關。
基於以上研究發現，本研究建議國內相關研發機構與學術單位，加強微型光譜儀相關技術人才之培育，以及應用市場之保護措施，並且積極經由產學合作，建立專利或其他智慧財產防護壁壘，同時鼓勵企業投資與新創事業，以建立產業聯盟、加強獎勵措施與租稅優惠等方式，讓我國的半導體、光電、微電子與微機電等高科技產業，共同在新的微型光譜儀產業與市場競爭中取得先機。 / Because of the advantages of simple structures, less components, lower price, light weight and compact size, micro spectrometers apply to more and more fields which need optical spectrum detection and overcome the drawback of conventional spectrometers, which shows great market potential and business opportunities. Since MEMS fabrication is highly compatible to semiconductor industry and plays important role in the product and technology evolution of micro spectrometer, the development and applications of micro spectrometer are expected as a moving force of MEMS industrial growth. Two M&A cases in 2003 also indicate the market potential and technology value of miniature spectrometers are highly appreciated by the photonic enterprises and biomedical industry. Therefore, the topic of technology development and applied market value of miniature spectrometers is worth investigated.
Spectrometer can analyze physical and chemical properties in material, which the used wavelength will depend on applications. The features of spectrum detection include: non-invasion, non-destruction, chemical discrimination, wavelength flexibility, high sensitivity and fast analysis speed. Apparently even with wide range of application, its popularity is not big enough. The main reasons come that conventional spectrometer uses the scanning mechanical design with long measurement time, high unit price and bulky size as well as inconvenient movement, complicated daily maintenance and wavelength calibration, so will substantially limit the industrial scale and growth.
By analyzing the technical literatures and related patents, the technology trend of miniature spectrometers include: less components and simplified system designing, the advanced optical algorithm to cancel aberration of wavelength dispersion, and mass- productive MEMS fabrication. Signal processing and the characteristic of detector will be the key competitiveness of next evolving stage. Players who know the applications well and own the fabrication of key components will dominate the market.
The applied markets of miniature spectrometer are also investigated in this thesis. The biomedical and environmental uses have most market potential, and the market value target 600M USD and 350M USD respectively. The market value of application in agricultural foods and color management are also target 200M USD and 180M USD once consumer-type devices with low price entering the markets. In the photonic instrument industry and optical measurement application, the market value will stably growing up and maintain the size around 30M USD. The sum total of five main applications of miniature spectrometers will target 450M USD in 2015 and 1000M USD in 2020.
Regarding the studies on literature, market reports and M&A cases, the industry of miniature spectrometer can be identified in the growth stage, which discounted cash flow (DCF) method is most suitable for technical value analysis. The size and terms of two M&A cases of miniature spectrometer industry in 2003 also echo the evaluation, market value estimation and the identification of growth state in technical life cycle.
A business model of a start-up company with key technology in miniature spectrometer is build and analyzed in this thesis. By DCF method and under the circumstance when R&D cost ratios 40 % of total cost, the technical vale equals long-term net annual profit and is highly related to R&D cost ratio and net profit size.
By the investigation of this thesis, we suggest domestic research and academic institutes put more effects on technical development and talent education of miniature spectrometer. The preferential treatment to local firms and intellectual property barrier should be build as soon as possible. In such a way, the advantageous of semiconductor, opto-electronic, micro-electronic and MEMS industries in Taiwan will take more preference and business opportunity in miniature spectrometer market competition in the near future.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0094361001 |
| Creators | 詹益鑑, Jan, I-Chien |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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