近年來國人晚婚、不婚、晚育或不育的現象持續惡化，衍伸出高齡少子化所帶來之人口結構惡化已是國家安全層次議題。本研究以實證方式探討影響台灣地區生育率之主要因素，並著重住宅價格（房價所得比）、住宅交易數量（建物買賣移轉棟數）及存量（自有住宅率）之變化與總生育率之關聯性。探究近年我國房價變化、持有自有住宅比率及住宅市場之交易活絡程度是否會影響家戶單位生育決策。
研究針對西元2002年至西元2015年間台灣地區20縣市共280筆追蹤資料(Panel data)，在控制時間效果下運用傳統最小平方法、固定效果模型及隨機效果模型對資料進行迴歸分析。研究結果顯示：在考慮生育率落後一期情境下，同時控制時間及區域效果模型中發現：房價所得比與總生育率呈現顯著正相關，建物買賣移轉棟數與總生育率呈現顯著負相關，自有住宅率雖與總生育率為正相關但未達顯著水準。而其他影響總生育率之主要變數：女性受高等教育比率及粗結婚率與總生育率成顯著正相關。失業率與總生育率則為顯著負相關。研究結果可發現，可能由於我國高度自有住宅率之特性，房價上漲帶來之財富效果是導致房價所得比與生育率呈現正向關係之成因。建物買賣移轉棟數與總生育率呈現負向關係，研判來自於家戶購屋初期通常需付出一筆為數不小之頭期款，短期間內將耗用家戶較多經濟資源，進而排擠家戶單位短期生育決策。 / In recent years, more and more Taiwanese tend to marry at a later age, or remain unmarried, or bear children at a later age or not at all. The problems of population aging and low birth rate have led to the worsened population structure, which has become an issue of national security. This empirical study investigated the factors that contributed to the present low birth rate in Taiwan. The study emphasized the relationships between housing price to income ratio, the number of housing transferred, homeownership rate and total fertility rate (TFR). This study also tried to investigate how the aforementioned three factors affect the childbearing decision of family units.
The study focused on a panel data set with 280 samples that was collected across 20 cities and counties in Taiwan from 2002 to 2015. Ordinary least squares, fixed effects model and random effects model were used, and time effect are controlled in all models. The results showed that, after controlling for the time and regional effects, the housing price to income ratio had a positive relationship with the lag TFR. The number of building transferred had a negative relationship with the lag TFR. The homeownership rate had an insignificant negative relationship with the lag TFR. Other factors also affected the lag TFR. For example, the ratio of females who received higher education and crude marriage rates had a significant positive effect. The unemployment rate had a significant negative relationship with the lag TFR. The results might imply that, given the high homeownership rate in Taiwan, the rise in housing price increase “wealth effect’’ which is the reason for the positive relationship between housing price to income ratio and lag TFR. The reason for the negative relationship between the number of building transferred and lag TFR could be the huge financial burden of down payment when a family purchases a house. This burden takes out a huge portion from the budget, and therefore family units might decide to delay having children for a short period.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0103921005 |
| Creators | 張聖昊, Chang, Sheng Hao |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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