本文引用Petkova(2006)所制定出來的模型及概念，探討Fama-French因子是否能作為投資機會的預測變數，並分析台灣股票市場風險溢酬(risk premium)與總體經濟變數間的關係。本文使用的總體經濟變數包括：規模效果因子(SMB)、淨值市價比效果因子(HML)、市場因子(market factor)、違約利差(default spread)、期限利差(term spread)、一個月期定存利率(RF)及股利收益率(dividend yield)。除此之外，本文亦以VAR系統表達每個狀態變數的動態特徵，討論公司治理因子與總體經濟變數(macroeconomic variables)間的關聯，並比較總體經濟變數與公司治理因子分別對股票超額報酬的解釋能力。
本研究以台灣股票市場為研究樣本，資料期間為2005年11月至2014年4月，共102個月的月報酬為研究主體。實證結果可發現：（1)本研究的價值型的股票(value stock)具有較高的風險溢酬，成長型股票(Growth stock)擁有較低的風險溢酬；而台灣上市公司也存在顯著規模效果，小市值公司具有較高的風險溢酬，大市值公司擁有較低的風險溢酬。（2)在大市值的分類下，期限利差(term spread)與淨值市價比因子(HML)呈現正向變動。在小市值的分類下，期限利差(term spread)與淨值市價比因子(HML)呈現反向變動；違約利差(default spread)則與規模效果因子(SMB)呈現正向變動。 / We use the model and concept that Petkova(2006) formulated to discuss if Fama-French factors can be the predictable variables of investment opportunity and analysis the relationship between risk premium and macroeconomic variables on Taiwan stock market. There are many macroeconomic variables in the article：Size factor(SMB)、book-to-market factor(HML)、market factor、default spread、term spread、one-month deposit interest rate and dividend yield. We capture the dynamic characters of every variables through VAR system to analyze the relationship French-French factors and macroeconomic variables. Furthermore, we compare the relationship between SMB and default spread, HML and term spread through the first step of Fama-MacBeth way.
We can make two important conclusions through empirical evidence：(1) The risk premium is higher in value stocks than in growth stock, which means there is prominent book-to-market effect on Taiwan stock market. Moreover, the risk premium is higher in small firms than in large firms, which means there is magnificent size effect on Taiwan stock market.（2) The behavior that default spread has is the same as SMB factor in any book-to-market ratio criteria. However, the behavior that term spread has is the same as HML factor only in big capitalization criteria.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0101258016 |
| Creators | 邱顯貴, Chiu, Hsien Kuei |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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