本研究探討分析師盈餘預測偏差程度是否受到景氣循環的影響。首先以美國股市大盤指數的漲跌趨勢判定景氣循環的高峰時點，並藉此區分景氣循環由上往下反轉與否之依據。其次，探討當景氣由上往下反轉時，分析師盈餘預測的偏差程度是否有明顯增加的現象。最後，探討預測該公司之分析師人數、公司盈餘變動程度、公司發生損失及分析師盈餘預測的分散程度與分析師盈餘預測偏差程度之相關性，於景氣由上往下反轉時期與景氣穩定成長時期是否會有顯著差異。
實證結果顯示：(1)分析師盈餘預測偏差程度的確會受到景氣循環的影響。當景氣由上往下反轉時，分析師未能掌握景氣循環的脈動，立即修正其盈餘預測，而是傾向發佈具樂觀性偏差的盈餘預測。(2)處於景氣由上往下反轉時期，預測該公司之分析師人數、公司發生損失及分析師預測盈餘分散程度對分析師盈餘預測的偏差程度之影響會產生強化效果。然而，本研究並無充足證據顯示，公司盈餘變動程度與分析師盈餘預測偏差程度之相關性會受到景氣由上往下反轉而有所不同。 / This study investigates whether business cycle affects bias in analysts’ earnings forecasts. Based on NASDAQ market index, an economic sudden slump is selected for examining whether the bias in analysts’ earnings forecasts is more obvious during the period of the economic slump. On top of this, the association between the bias in analysts’ earnings forecasts and some economic factors including number of analysts following, change in earnings, firm loss and forecast dispersion in the economic sudden slump is also explored.
The empirical results show that business cycle in analysts’ earnings forecasts indeed influences bias. When the economic sudden slump happens, analysts are not aware of business cycle’s fluctuation in time to revise their earnings forecasts; instead they trend to issue optimistic bias in earnings forecasts. In the economic sudden slump, the number of analysts following, firm loss and forecast dispersion deeply affect bias in analysts’ earnings forecasts. However, this study does not find sufficient evidence that the association between change in earnings and bias in analysts’ earnings forecasts is more obvious during the period of economic sudden slump.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0903530061 |
| Creators | 蔡佳臻 |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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