在過去眾多破產預測研究中，多半致力於找尋將企業劃分為破產及非破產兩大類之分界點，鮮有將破產過程作階段式劃分之研究。而企業破產或財務重整皆意味著社會資源之誤置，其影響層面與企業的規模大小成正比，尤以公開發行股票之公司為甚。因此，本文以上市公司為研究母體，試圖發展描述企業破產過程之模型。
本文依據 Beaver(1966)、 Altman(1968)、 Ohlson(1980)、Lau(1987)等模型及其它實證文獻形成研究假設，分別以民國七十四年及七十五年破產公司及非破產公司為原始樣本及期後樣本，採用因素分析、區別分析和選輯機率模型進行分析，得到以下結論：
一、企業失敗為一階段性過程。
二、失敗過程可以用財務比率有效解釋，且每一階段具重大顯著性財務因素不盡相同。
三、針對發生財務困難前四個年度以因素分析法選出主要財務因素，其中因素負荷量較大者為股東權益報酬率、流動資產百分比、負債比率、應收帳款週轉率、銷貨成長率、收益率、總資產報酬率等。
四、就企業失敗過程而言，在財務困難前三、四年大部分的公司可從負債比率的惡化看出端倪，而在財務困難前一、二年則由總資產報酬率的下降，顯現企業已步入存亡關頭。
五、以期後樣本對區別函數的穩定性進行驗證，結果顯示該模式的預測能力在失敗前三個年度均達82%以上。 / Most of researches about bankruptcy prediction seek for the cut-off point to classify the corporations into two groups: bankruptcy or nonbankruptcy; only few consider that bankruptcy is a gradual process and build a model to describe it. On the other hand, bankruptcy or financial restructure means the misuse of social resources. The impact of this misuse depends on the scale of the corporation The larger the corporation scale is, the greater the impact is, especially those corporations whose stocks traded publicly. This study intends to build a multiple-stage model to desribe the bankruptcy process of those corporations.
This study set research hypothesises based on models of Beave (1996), Altman (1968), Ohlson (1980), Lau(1987) and other empirical studies and use factor analysis, discriminant analysis and logistic model to analysis the data of original and holdout samples. The conclusions of this study are shown as follwing:
1. Indeed, bankruptcy is a gradual process.
2. The process of bankruptcy can be effectively described by financial ratios and very stage of the process doesn't have the same significant financial factors.
3. Analysis financial data one to four years prior to bankruptcy by factor analysis, this study draw seven factors with largest factor loading: turn-over on equity, percentage of currcnt assets, debt to equity, trun-over on account receivable, percentage of sales growth, rate of gross profit and turn-over on total assets.
4. In the process of bankruptcy, debt to equity raises rapidly three to four years before bankruptcy and trrn-over on total assets slips down between one to two years before bankruptcy.
5. Validating the stability of the model with holdout samples appears that the correct prediction percentage of the discriminant model is 82%in average between one to three years before bankruptcy.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/B2002003087 |
| Creators | 儲蕙文 |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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