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江澤民時期對美國安全關係之研究-理性決策模式的分析

中國是一個興起中的強權,中國領導人的世界觀與國際戰略,將深刻影響到未來世界秩序的形成,且影響力有增無減;尤其,在現代化的過程中,中國大陸突破以市場經濟與代議民主為核心的制式模式,試圖開創獨特的政經體制,且自改革開放以來,經濟高度穩定成長,使其整體國力不斷提昇,綜合國力讓人不能忽視。

其中中共外交政策研究不僅是研究中國大陸問題的一項重要議題,也是為研究國際關係學者無法加以忽略的環節。有關中國大陸「決策過程」之研究,可以使得我們更豐富地瞭解中國大陸所面臨之各種環境因素,決策者所重視的政策問題以及其解決方式,進而獲知中國大陸政治系統之結構特徵及運作方式。

當中以大國關係的說法充份反映了中國外交政策前提的演化,也同時涉及了中國在世界上的自我定位,甚至還對維持其國內秩序的各種制度安排,提供了新的視野與期盼。「九一一事件」使東亞大國間關係發生若干變化,其主要特徵為:中美關係在美國的反恐戰爭後獲得改善,但結構性與戰略緊張的本質尚未發生根本改變。

在決策方面,就理論上說來,中共其實也要求決策的科學化和民主化,強調一切決策應該以建設具有中國特色的社會主義為總目標,要堅持以人民為主體的思想,加強決策制度的建設,希望能在把握國情的基礎上,堅持決策的連續性與創造性,以實現決策程序的制度化。

中共當前的決策重點似乎並不在於事先制定一個完美、理想的決策方案,而是要利用已有的資訊,迅速作出盡量準確的決策,然後再透過決策程序中的有關機制再逐步加以改善、調整。換句話說,中共的某些決策者認為,凡事要冒點風險,不能為了追求完美而錯過了時機,有限的錯誤可以透過總結經驗及反饋調整來加以改善。因此,中共是把蒐集資料、制定方案、確定目標的過程適度的壓縮,其決策並未一味強求必須是「最佳」的決策,而是要求相對「較佳」的選擇。中共所說「摸著石頭過河」差可反映此一思維。

本文希望藉由江澤民時期對美國安全關係的檢驗分析,來探討中共外交決策模式,研究方向是由江澤民時期中共與美國安全關係的演變,此期間中共外交決策機構與運作,參與外交決策的黨政組織架構,瞭解決策過程中的黨政權力運作,以外交決策模型的檢驗,來探討理性行為者模式。 / While China is a rising superpower, the global view and international strategy of its rulers will greatly influence the order of the future world. The influence will keep increasing ; especially, in the process of its modernization, China ﹙Mainland China﹚ broke the mode of western market economy and democracy and is attempting to create unique political system and economical system. Since it opened up to the world, Chinas’ecomomy has kept growing steabily and enhanced its national power. Its overall national strength has been so powerful that no other countries in the world can ignore it.

China's foreign policy is one of the important issues studied by the experts in Chinese problems. Such issue is also highly valued by the expects in international relations. The study on the process of China's decision-making enables us to fully understand the situations that China has been faced with, and the problem the policy maker concentrate and the solutions to them. Furthermore, the study also enables us to realize the features of its political structures and the ways it operates.

China's so-called “the relation among the superpowers”not only reflects the evolution of recent Beijing foreign policy but also relates to its identity in the world. The theory also provides new perspective on maintaining its domestic order. 911Incident changed the relation among China,U.S.A. and Japan. Among the changes, the main feature is that the relationship between China and the US improved after the anti- terrorism war launched by U.S,A. However ,the improvement does't basic change the structure of their relations and tension caused by each other's international strategy still exist.

In terms of its decision-making , China demans to make all political decisions scientically and through democratical process . they emphasize that Chinese socialism is the only goal of all constructions, stick to the ideology of people-oriented, and enorce their polical decisions. To systematize of the proceduce of making political decision, they expect to persist in the continuity and creativity of their political decisions on the basic of their national conditions.

The top priority of China is not to establish a perfect and ideal system of making polical decision in advance. Instead , they utilize the information they have owned to make a more accurate decision rapidly and then gradually improve and adjust it in the procedure. In other words, China's decision makers think that everything take risks , that it is unwise to miss a good opportunity for the perfection and that some mistakes can be improved through experience and adjustment. Therefore, China appropriately shortens the procedures of collecting information, making scheme, and confiming goals. They don't expect the best decision but a better one. A Chinese saying, to wade across the stream by feeding the way, reflects the thinking mentioned above.

The research studies the framework of China's foreign policy by analyzing the security relations to U.S.A. in Jiang Zemin's term. To understand the procedure of how Chinese Communists operate their polical power, I focus on the development of China and U.S.A.'s security relations in Jiang Zemin's term and the organizations which took charge of China's foreign policy and their operation.

Identiferoai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0093922015
Creators張和明
Publisher國立政治大學
Source SetsNational Chengchi University Libraries
Language中文
Detected LanguageEnglish
Typetext
RightsCopyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders

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