Because of the high cost and the irreversibility of the big investment company decision maker often choose to defer the investment until the uncertainty gets clear. That is a management flexibility to decrease the risky. This article analyze that when company faces two competing technology that one have competing advantage comparing with the other under an uncertainty situation how does the company decide when and which to adopt. We develop a continuous-time stochastic model that aids in determination of optimal timing for adoption within the framework of real options theory. We propose that the competing situation between two incompatible technologies follows the general Wiener Process. When company chose to defer the investment we use the expectations of the decision maker and the competing situation between two technologies to decide the optimal investment timing. The result of this thesis suggests that a technology adopter should defer its investment until one technology¡¦s probability to win out in the market place and achieve critical mass reaches a critical threshold.
This research only provides a way to show the decision maker when and which to adopt but not guarantee that the technology being chose will dominate the market in the future.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:NSYSU/oai:NSYSU:etd-0725105-192415 |
| Date | 25 July 2005 |
| Creators | Ho, Chia-lung |
| Contributors | Zhen-cong Huang, Hui-Mei Liang, Si-lang Liao |
| Publisher | NSYSU |
| Source Sets | NSYSU Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Archive |
| Language | Cholon |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Source | http://etd.lib.nsysu.edu.tw/ETD-db/ETD-search/view_etd?URN=etd-0725105-192415 |
| Rights | withheld, Copyright information available at source archive |
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