This study provides a long-term understanding of the impact of climate varia-bility and land use on seasonal water balance conditions for sustainable agricul-ture development, hydropower generation and ecosystem stability in the Lower Rufiji Basin. The severity of soil drought, extreme flooding and salinity intru-sion in the lower Rufiji floodplains are currently increasing smallholder poverty and enhance the sensitivity on the natural wetlands for shifting farming and livestock pastures. The CoupModel and SWAT hydrological model were ap-plied to assess and compare the impact of climate variability on the water bal-ance. The monthly river discharge was used for calibrating and validating the runoff at the Stiegler's Gorge. The simulated results for water balance compo-nents at Stiegler's Gorge showed 55% of accumulated precipitation is lost through evapotranspiration and 42 % is river runoffs for downstream agricul-ture and ecosystem services. The evaluation of the models simulation perfor-mance and posterior distribution of parameter behavioral value indicates the (GLUE) calibration method in the CoupModel agreed satisfactory with the Bayesian calibration (BC). The minimal variance in the Bayesian Calibration posterior parameter distribution was observed in the parameter for regulating water uptake from (CritThresholDry) and soil moisture availability for soil evaporation(PsiRs_ip). The SWAT simulation showed that south of the central floodplains has high risk of soil drought. The overall assessment implies that drought and river runoff dynamics in the LRB is affected by upstream land use activities. The strategies for building smallholder resilience towards climate change and land use impact requires collective and coordinated water manage-ment actions powered by individual, institutional, financial and technological adaptation.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:UPSALLA1/oai:DiVA.org:kth-171831 |
| Date | January 2013 |
| Creators | Hamisi, Rajabu |
| Publisher | KTH, Mark- och vattenteknik |
| Source Sets | DiVA Archive at Upsalla University |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Student thesis, info:eu-repo/semantics/bachelorThesis, text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
| Relation | TRITA-LWR Degree Project, 1651-064X ; 2013:38 |
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