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Temperature-dependent butterfly dynamics

Climate change is currently a central problem in ecology, with far-reaching effects on species that may be diffcult to quantify. Ectothermic species which rely on environmental cues to complete successive stages of their life history are especially sensitive to temperature changes and so are good indicators of the impacts of climate change on ecosystems. Based on data collected in growth experiments for the alpine butterfly Parnassius smintheus (Rocky Mountain Apollo), a novel mathematical model is presented to study developmental rate in larval insects. The movement of an individual through larval instars is treated as a discrete-time four-outcome Bernoulli process, where class transition and death are assigned temperature-dependent probabilities. Transition and mortality probabilities are estimated using maximum likelihood estimation techniques. This adult emergence model is then integrated into a reproductive success model, and multi-year implications of climate change on the population dynamics of P. smintheus are explored. / Applied Mathematics

Identiferoai:union.ndltd.org:LACETR/oai:collectionscanada.gc.ca:AEU.10048/1546
Date11 1900
CreatorsWheeler, Jeanette
ContributorsLewis, Mark (Mathematical and Statistical Sciences), Bampfylde, Caroline (Alberta Environment), Roland, Jens (Biological Sciences), Wang, Hao (Mathematical and Statistical Sciences)
Source SetsLibrary and Archives Canada ETDs Repository / Centre d'archives des thèses électroniques de Bibliothèque et Archives Canada
LanguageEnglish
Detected LanguageEnglish
TypeThesis
Format3628555 bytes, application/pdf

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