Thesis (MComm)--Stellenbosch University, 2013. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study sets out to evaluate the possible influence of increasing and declining
markets on the returns of dividend-investing strategies. This study’s objective,
therefore, was to evaluate the possible influence dividend pay-out policy has on
share return. Secondary objectives serve to investigate how the size of cash dividend
payments, measured in dividend yield (DY), influence share value, especially during
bull and bear markets respectively.
In order to address the stated objectives of this study and prevent possible
survivorship bias, the sample included listed and delisted shares for the period 1995
to 2010. Initially, all firms that were listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange
(JSE) during the period under review were considered, both that were listed at the
end as well as firms that delisted. However, due to the nature of the financial
structures of firms in the financial and basic industries, the study did not include their
data. The final sample consisted of 291 firms, providing 22 927 monthly
observations. Dividend-investing strategies were constructed using non-dividendpaying
(Portfolio one) and dividend-paying firms (Portfolio two). Portfolio one and two
were then further deconstructed into four groups based on monthly DY rankings.
Portfolio one was represented by Group 1, whilst Portfolio two was grouped into the
lowest, medium, and highest DYs and classified as Group 2 to Group 4 accordingly. The results obtained from statistical analyses performed in this study indicate that the
level of DY appears to influence returns positively. Furthermore, after investigating
the results obtained during opposing market scenarios, some important findings
resulted. During bear markets no significant difference in abnormal risk-adjusted
returns was observed for the portfolios and four groups, however, in bull markets the
return for Portfolio two, specifically Group 4, was more than double the result for the
non-dividend payers. This study, therefore proposes that firms should have a DY in
the range of the highest market DY average for bull markets specifically. From the
perspective of the potential investors, the study suggests that dividend-investing
could allow for the generation of positive risk-adjusted returns during bull markets. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie studie evalueer die moontlike invloed van stygende en dalende markte
aangaande opbrengs op dividend-investerings strategie . Die studie se primêre
doelwit is om die invloed van dividend uitbetalings op aandeel opbrengste te
bestudeer. Sekondêre doelwitte ondersoek hoe die grootte van ‘n kontant dividend,
soos gemeet in dividend opbrengs, die aandeel-waarde beïnvloed, spesifiek tydens
bul en beer markte.
Om oorlewingsydigheid te voorkom, sluit die steekproef genoteerde sowel as
gedenoteerde firmas in vir ‘n tydperk van 1995 tot 2010. Aanvanklik was alle sektore
van die Johannesburg Aandele-beurs (JSE) ondersoek, maar weens die komplekse
kapitaal struktuur van finansi le en die basiese nywerheid sektore was hul aandeel
inligiting uitgesluit. Die finale steekproef het ‘n totaal van 291 firmas ingesluit en 22
927 maandelike waarnemings verskaf. Dividend-investerings strategie was
saamgestel deur nie-dividend-betalende firmas (Portefeulje een) teenoor dividendbetalende
firmas (Portefeulje twee) te vergelyk. Die twee portefeuljes was ook verder
onderdeel in vier groepe volgens maandelikse dividend opbrengstes. Portefeulje een
was verteenwoordig deur Groep 1, terwyl Portfeulje twee opgedeel was volgends
laag, medium, en hoë dividend opbrengstes en geklasifiseer as Groep 2 tot 4
onderskeidelik. Die resultate van die statististiese ontleding van hierdie studie dui moontlik daarop
dat die vlak van dividend opbrengs aandeel waarde positief beïnvloed. Nadat die
spesifieke bul en beer markte ontleed is, was belangrike resultate waargeneem.
Tydens beer markte was daar geen beduidende verskil tussen die risiko-aangepaste
opbrengstes van die twee portefeuljes en vier groepe nie, maar tydens bul markte
het die opbrengstes van Portefeulje twee, spesifiek Groep 4, meer as dubbel dié van
die nie-dividend betalers getoon. Die studie stel dus voor dat ‘n firma tydens bul
markte moet poog om ‘n dividend opbrengs te handhaaf wat die hoogste gemiddeld
van die mark verteenwoordig. Vanuit die belegger se oogpunt, stel die studie voor
dat dividend investering stategie moontlik gebruik kan word om positiewe risikoaangepaste
opbrengstes te genereer, veral tydens bul markte.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:sun/oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/80278 |
| Date | 03 1900 |
| Creators | Du Toit, Nicol Eduan |
| Contributors | Erasmus, P. D., Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Business Management. |
| Publisher | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| Source Sets | South African National ETD Portal |
| Language | en_ZA |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis |
| Format | ix, 137 p. : ill. |
| Rights | Stellenbosch University |
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