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Improving The Production Forecasts : Developing a Forecasting Model Using Exponential Smoothing

This research is motivated by identified gaps in contemporary planning practices and production processes within firms. Relying solely on experiential knowledge has proven limiting, necessitating a more systematic approach. Previous instances of data anomalies, particularly ongoing challenges in achieving satisfactory delivery reliability, have underlined the need for deeper insights into underlying patterns. The objectives of this study are: • To identify and analyze specific obstacles and challenges affecting load balance and delivery security in Borl.nge's production system. • To explore various methods or strategies aimed at enhancing the process of generating reliable capacity forecasting methods. Both primary and secondary research methods were employed. Primary methods included interviews and the development of a forecast model, while secondary studies encompassed the latest research in the field. The thesis revealed five primary factors hindering capacity attainment: 1. WIP(work in progress)/ slabs material shortages disrupt production flow and escalate costs due to the need for external sourcing of slabs. 2. Transport issues, including incorrect internal deliveries and the weather conditions, pose challenges. 3. Personnel shortages hinder the efficient utilization of production capacity. 4. Machine breakdowns result in production interruptions, leading to capacity loss and inefficiency. 5. Inventory problems, such as insufficient capacity and poor management, impede smooth production operations. Additionally, the second objective was addressed by implementing exponential smoothing for capacity planning forecasts. By updating forecasts every 13 weeks, this study improves the production forecast.

Identiferoai:union.ndltd.org:UPSALLA1/oai:DiVA.org:ltu-105249
Date January 2024
CreatorsAda Fatemeh, Rezai
PublisherLuleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik, konst och samhälle
Source SetsDiVA Archive at Upsalla University
LanguageEnglish
Detected LanguageEnglish
TypeStudent thesis, info:eu-repo/semantics/bachelorThesis, text
Formatapplication/pdf
Rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess

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