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Previous issue date: 2017-08-31 / Coordena??o de Aperfei?oamento de Pessoal de N?vel Superior (CAPES) / Diante da perspectiva do aumento de extremos de precipita??o pluvial devido ?s mudan?as clim?ticas, estudar a influ?ncia da atividade ciclo solar e fluxo de raios c?smicos nessa vari?vel meteorol?gica ? de grande import?ncia. A precipita??o pluvial ? um fator preponderante para a agricultura, setor energ?tico, pecu?ria e para a economia. Com isso, ? de extrema import?ncia estudar a rela??o entre elas. Inicialmente, houve a necessidade de reconstruir diversas s?ries hist?ricas com percentual inferior a 60% de dados faltantes nas s?ries hist?ricas de GCR, em que, o m?todo MTSDI foi apontado como o melhor modelo, entre aquelas estudadas, para a realiza??o de imputa??o de dados observacionais de GCR. Sendo assim, escolhida a esta??o de Huancayo/PER para correlacionar com a precipita??o pluvial na regi?o Norte e Nordeste do Brasil. Verificou-se que houve coer?ncia estat?stica pela t?cnica de Wavelet Coherence entre a precipita??o pluvial com GCR e SSN na escala mensal, sazonal, anual, interanual e interdecadal. Pela t?cnica de Maximal Overlay Transform (MODWT) constatou-se que existe correla??o significativa entre as s?ries estudadas nas escalas de 5,3 anos, 10,6 anos, 22,3 anos e 44,6 anos. E, por fim, pode-se construir um modelo para predizer a s?rie hist?rica da precipita??o pluvial, mostrando-se satisfat?rio. Portanto, essa pesquisa mostrou que existe influ?ncia do fluxo de raios c?smicos e da atividade solar na precipita??o pluvial regi?o tropical Brasileira. / Considering the perspective of increasing extremes of rainfall due to climate change, studying the influence of solar cycle activity and cosmic ray flux on this meteorological variable is of great importance. Rainfall is a preponderant factor for agriculture, the energy sector, livestock and for the economy. With this, it is extremely important to study the relationship between them. Initially, it was necessary to reconstruct several historical series with a percentage of less than 60% of missing data in the historical GCR series, in which the MTSDI method was pointed out as the best model, among those studied, to perform the imputation of observational data Of GCR. Thus, the Huancayo / PER station was chosen to correlate with rainfall in the North and Northeast of Brazil. It was verified that there was statistical coherence by the Wavelet Coherence technique between rainfall with GCR and SSN in the monthly, seasonal, annual, interannual and interdecadal scale. Maximal Overlay Transform (MODWT) showed that there is a significant correlation between the series studied in the scales of 5.3 years, 10.6 years, 22.3 years and 44.6 years. And, finally, a model can be constructed to predict the historical series of rainfall, proving to be satisfactory. Therefore, this research showed that there is influence of cosmic rays flux and solar activity on Brazilian tropical precipitation.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:IBICT/oai:repositorio.ufrn.br:123456789/24682 |
| Date | 31 August 2017 |
| Creators | Fernandes, Ronabson Cardoso |
| Contributors | 77231295720, Mendes, David, 43298990272, Borba, Gilvan Luiz, 10849572487, Neves, Josemir Ara?jo, 76178420404, Frigo, ?verton, 99406543087, Fernandez, Jos? Henrique, L?cio, Paulo S?rgio |
| Publisher | PROGRAMA DE P?S-GRADUA??O EM CI?NCIAS CLIM?TICAS, UFRN, Brasil |
| Source Sets | IBICT Brazilian ETDs |
| Language | Portuguese |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion, info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis |
| Source | reponame:Repositório Institucional da UFRN, instname:Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, instacron:UFRN |
| Rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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