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The potential liberalization of the Chinese monetary system and the impact on South Africa

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2005. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: China has experienced phenomenal economic growth over the past 20 years and has
developed from a pure socialist economy into a market driven economy_ However the
transfonnation process is not yet complete. China has a pegged currency system (this was the
case up until 2110712005) that is coupled to the US dollar. The result of this was that their
currency fluctuated much less than other developing country currencies and hence became a
very attractive investment destination. In addition to this labour in China is very cheap and
access to economies of scale is available. But despite the many positive aspects of the Chinese
economy there are also a number of elements that have very negative consequences for the
economy and need to be addressed if China wishes to create prosperity for all its citizens.
The value of the yuan has been a topic of great contention, and there are very different
opinions as to what the currency value should be. After careful consideration of the various
options available to China it was assessed that it would be highly detrimental for China to
suddenly free float its currency. However it is essential for China to gradually liberate their
monetary system so as to create more monetary autonomy. To ensure that liberalization is
done in an orderly and non~djsruptjve way, it is important that China refonns other aspects of
its economy (such as its banking system, its unprofitable state owned enterprises, its need for
energy, income inequality, the protection of intellectual property, its legal system, worker
rights and growing unemployment).
South Africa, as an emerging economy, also faces a number of challenges to create more
opportunities for its people (of whom many are still living in poverty). Obstacles to economic
growth include the effects of HN and AIDS, low productivity, discrepancy between the
available and the needed skills, unemployment, crime and so forth. A number of positive
aspects also exist that need to be harnessed more creatively to ensure that South Africans reap
the rewards of sustained economic development. However, it is important that all the people
in the economy (i.e. government, business, communities and NGOs) work together to create a
positive business environment. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: China het indrukwekkende ekonomiese groei oor die afgelope 20 jaar ervaar en het ontwikkel
van 'n sosiale ekonomie tot 'n markgedrewe ekonomie. Die transforrnasie proses is egter nog
nie voltooi nie. China het 'n gekoppelde geldeenheid (dit was die geval tot en met
21107/2005) wat aan die Amerikaanse dollar gekoppel was. Die resultaat was dat hulle
geldeenheid minder gefluktueer het as ander ontwikkelende ekonomiee, en China het dus 'n
gesogte beleggingsoord geword. Daarmee saam is die koste van arbeid in China baie
goedkoop en kan daar van skaalvoordele gebruik gemaak word. Maar ten spyte van die
positiewe aspekte. is daar ook 'n aantal elemente wat baie negatiewe gevolge vir die
ekonomie inhou en wat aangespreek moet word as China voorspoed vir al sy landsburgers wil
verseker.
Die waarde van die Chinese yuan is die afgelope paar jaar 'n onderwerp van omstredenheid
gewees wat baie verskillende opinies oor die werklike waarde van die eenheid tot gevolg
gehad het. Na die oorweging van die verskeie opsies wat beskikbaar is vir China, is bevind
dat 'n skielike vrystelling van die yuan baie negatiewe effekte op die ekonomie sal hê. Maar
dit is belangrik dat China weI hul geldeenheid geleidelik liberaliseer sodat die regering meer
outonomiteit kan hê (in terme van monetere besluitneming). Om te verseker dat die
liberalisering op 'n ordelike en nie-ontwrigtende manier sal plaasvind nie, is dit belangrik dat
daar ook liberalisering plaasvind in ander areas van die ekonomie (soos die bankstelsel, die
nie-winsgewende staatsbeheerde besighede, die gebruik van energie, inkomste ongelykheid,
die beskenning van intellektuele eiendom, die regstelsel, werkersregte en die groeiende
werkloosheid).
Suid-Afrika, as 'n ontluikende ekonomie, het ook 'n aantal uitdagings wat oorkorn moet word
indien volhoubare ekonomiese groei behaal wil word. Hindemisse tot ekonomiese groei sluit
in MIV en VIGS, lae produktiwiteit, die wanverhouding tussen benodigde en beskikbare
vaardighede, werkloosheid, misdaad en ander sosiale probleme. Daarteenoor is daar wel baie
positiewe aspekte wat meer effektief benut moet word om groei te dryf. Dit is ook baie
belangrik dat al die kernpelers in die ekonomie hul kant bring (dus die regering,
georganiseerde besigheid, werkers, werkloses en gemeenskapsorganisasies).

Identiferoai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:sun/oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/50510
Date12 1900
CreatorsVan der Waal, Cornelis
ContributorsRoux, A., Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Graduate School of Business.
PublisherStellenbosch : Stellenbosch University
Source SetsSouth African National ETD Portal
Languageen_ZA
Detected LanguageUnknown
TypeThesis
Format154 p. : ill.
RightsStellenbosch University

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