Thesis (MA (Political Science. International Studies))--University of Stellenbosch, 2009. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In an otherwise broad literature on civil conflict little attention has so far been paid to actual
conflict violence and variation in severity. Existing work is also hampered by a reliance on a
‘closed polity’ model of the state, leading to disregard of the transnational dimensions of
internal conflict, and by a dependence on over‐aggregated data. The present inquiry expands
on the existing explanatory framework for variation in civil conflict severity by including
transnational factors and characteristics of sub‐national actors. Data on conflict battle
deaths are combined with recently available data on transnational ethnic linkages, transnational
support and neighbouring conflict as well as other actor and country characteristics.
Results from ordinary least squares regression analysis indicate that support for rebel groups
from external non‐state actors increase conflict severity, while rebel presence in other states
is associated with less severe conflicts. In addition, severity increases with duration but with
a diminishing marginal return. Internal armed conflicts are less severe in democratic and
ethnically polarised countries but rebel territorial control increases the level of violence. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In die andersins omvangryke literatuur oor burgerlike konflik is daar tot op hede min aandag
geskenk aan werklike konflikgeweld en variasie in felheid (vernietigende omvang). Bestaande
werk word ook belemmer omdat dit staat maak op ’n model van die staat as ‘geslote regering’,
wat lei tot verontagsaming van die transnasionale dimensies van interne konflik, en
staat maak op oor‐geaggregeerde data. Hierdie ondersoek brei uit op die bestaande verklarende
raamwerk vir variasie in felheid van burgerlike konflik deur transnasionale faktore en
eienskappe van subnasionale deelnemers in te sluit. Data oor konflikgevegsterftes is gekombineer
met onlangse data oor transnasionale etniese koppelings, transnasionale steun en
naburige konflik, sowel as ander deelnemer‐ en landeienskappe. Resultate van gewone
kleinstekwadrate‐regressie‐analise dui daarop dat steun aan rebellegroepe deur eksterne
nie‐staatsdeelnemers konflikfelheid laat toeneem, terwyl rebelleteenwoordigheid in ander
lande geassosieer word met minder fel konflikte. Felheid neem ook toe saam met duur maar
met ’n afnemende marginale opbrengs. Interne gewapende konflikte is minder fel in demokratiese
en etnies gepolariseerde lande, maar rebellebeheer oor grondgebied verhoog die
vlak van geweld.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:sun/oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/2123 |
| Date | 12 1900 |
| Creators | Nedrebo, Oystein |
| Contributors | McGowen, P. J., University of Stellenbosch. Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences. Dept. of Political Science. |
| Publisher | Stellenbosch : University of Stellenbosch |
| Source Sets | South African National ETD Portal |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis |
| Rights | University of Stellenbosch |
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