Thesis (MA)--Stellenbosch University, 2003. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The definition of political risk and the methodology of its assessment have changed since
the inception of the discipline midway through the last century. This assignment assesses
the usefulness of a new quantitative technique that uses political constraints and the policy
preferences of political actors to construct a measure of political risk. Integrating the
findings of the resulting Political Constraints Index with an analysis of the political
economy of the Indian Electricity Sector, the assignment demonstrates that, contrary to the
original interpretations of the index, high levels of political constraints and political
competition may propagate a disabling policy regime and be detrimental to the investor,
despite the stated commitment of the incumbent government to policy reform. The
implication of these findings is that, to avoid incorrect interpretation, the Political
Constraint Index should be augmented by a comprehensive qualitative assessment of the
industry in question. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die definisie van politieke risiko en die metodologie om dit te ontleed, het verander sedert
die onstaan van hierdie dissipline gedurende die middel van die laaste eeu. Hierdie opdrag
ontleed die nuttigheid van 'n nuwe kwantitatiewe tegniek wat die politieke beperkings en
beleidsvoorkeure van politieke rolspelers gebruik om 'n maatstaf van politieke risiko te
verskaf. Die opdrag se integrasie van die bevindinge van die resulterende Politieke
Beperkings Indeks met 'n analise van die politieke ekonomie van die Indiese Elektrisiteits
Sektor bewys dat, teenstrydig met oorspronklike interpretasies van die indeks, hoe vlakke
van politieke beperkings en politieke kompetisie 'n deaktiveringsbeleid regime kan kweek
wat nadelig is vir die belegger, ten spyte van die huidige regering se verklaarde
toegewydheid tot beleidshervorming. Die implikasie van hierdie bevindinge is dat, om
foutiewe interpretasie te vermy, die Politieke Beperkings Indeks verbeter moet word deur 'n
omvattende kwalitatiewe ontleding van die verlangde industrie.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:sun/oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/49776 |
| Date | 12 1900 |
| Creators | Duncan, Stewart M. |
| Contributors | Kotze, H. J., Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences. Dept. of Political Science. |
| Publisher | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| Source Sets | South African National ETD Portal |
| Language | en_ZA |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis |
| Format | 95 p. : ill. |
| Rights | Stellenbosch University |
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