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To Err on the Side of Caution: Ethical Dimensions of the National Weather Service Warning Process

This dissertation traces three ethical dimensions, or values, of weather warnings in the National Weather Service (NWS): an ethic of accuracy, and ethic of care, and an ethic of resilience. Each appear in forecaster work but are not equally visible in the identity of a forecaster as scientific expert. Thus, I propose that the NWS should consider rethinking its science through its relationship to multiple publics, creating what Sandra Harding calls "strong objectivity." To this end, I offer the concept of empathic accuracy as an ethic that reflects the interrelatedness of precision and care that already attend to forecasting work. First, I offer a genealogy of the ethic of accuracy as forecasters see it. Beginning in the 1960s, operational meteorologists mounted an ethic of accuracy through the "man-machine mix," a concept that pointed to an identity of the forecasting scientist that required a demarcation between humans and technologies. It is continually troubled by the growing power of computer models to make predictions. Second, I provide an ethnographic account of the concern expressed by forecasters for their publics. I do so to demonstrate how an ethic of care exists alongside accuracy in their forecasting science, especially during times of crisis. I recreate the concern for others that their labor performs. It is an account that values emotion and is sensitive to context, showing what Virginia Held calls "the self-and-other together" that partially constitutes a forecaster identity. Third, I critique the NWS Weather Ready Nation Roadmap and its emphasis on developing in the public an ethic of resilience. I argue that, as currently framed, this ethic and its instantiation in the initiative Impact Based Decision Support Services narrowly defines community to such an extent that it disappears the public. However, it also reveals other valences of resilience that have the potential to open up a space for an empathetic accuracy. Finally, I close with a co-authored article that explores my own commitment to an ethic of relationality in disaster work and the compromises that create tension in me as a scholar and critical participant in the weather community. / Ph. D. / Every year, weather disasters affect people’s lives. When tornadoes, flash floods, winter weather, and heat threaten communities, forecasters in the National Weather Service (NWS) have the responsibility to issue alerts, which are called warnings, to help keep people safe from harm. For decades, these professionals have used the best technologies they have—Doppler radar, satellites, and observation networks—to scan the skies for potential danger. And they have done so diligently and with great attention to making their forecasts and warnings as accurate as possible. Yet each year, as these weather phenomena pose risks to people in their local communities, accuracy of warnings is not enough to keep people safe. This dissertation contributes to such concerns. Rather than focus on specific technologies that might be improved, I explore the professional identity of the NWS forecaster and potential changes to their science that might help them meet their mission to protect life. I offer insight into how NWS forecasters have chosen to see themselves and their role in society, and why. Specifically, my goal is to explore ways that the agency’s focus on accuracy is unintentionally masking other values that are important to the professional practices and activities of the forecaster. To help make the complexity of their identities more apparent, I offer a new kind of ethic, an <i>empathetic accuracy</i>, that better reflects not just the attention forecasters give to correct predictions but predictions done with care and concern for the people they serve. I explore the history of the term accuracy to show why it is so important in their work; I show how the notion of care is already key to their jobs; and I critique current policies that may either diminish or enhance their relationships with people in the general public. I suggest that the agency should consider developing a better kind of science that accounts for this complex professional image of the forecaster as scientist and public servant. More importantly, my goal is to show that NWS forecasters have alternative roles they can engage with that are equally, if not more important, to the people whose lives they are committed to protecting.

Identiferoai:union.ndltd.org:VTETD/oai:vtechworks.lib.vt.edu:10919/83808
Date05 January 2017
CreatorsHenderson, Jennifer J.
ContributorsScience and Technology Studies, Downey, Gary L., Halfon, Saul E., Morss, Rebecca, Schmid, Sonja, Collier, James H.
PublisherVirginia Tech
Source SetsVirginia Tech Theses and Dissertation
Detected LanguageEnglish
TypeDissertation
FormatETD, application/pdf, application/pdf
RightsIn Copyright, http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/

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