Climate change has become a major concern globally and it clearly exerts a profound influence on the lives of poor rural populations who depend on agriculture for livelihoods.Generally, agriculture is more at risk from weather, pests and diseases than is industry or trade. Furthermore, many farming units are at low levels of development with little technological input in their production systems. This makes them vulnerable to any exposure to climate and environmental variation, given that there is little capacity for the system to adjust to change. Most at risk are the rural poor with low levels of development and limited ability to adapt to and overcome the effects of climate change. Using data from a sample survey of 120 households this study attempts to assess and compare indicators of vulnerability to climate change. The comparison was made at household level between three typical villages, an inland, a river catchment and a coastal village. This idea of comparison arises from the general understanding that different variables affect different regions differently so that the impact of and vulnerability to climate change differs across regions, areas and populations. The data was obtained using a questionnaire that was administered through face-to-face interviews. Given that sensitivity and adaptive capacity of farming systems to climate change is shaped by both socioeconomic and institutional factors, a multiple regression model was used to test the relationship between indicators of vulnerability and household socioeconomic and institutional characteristics. Indicators were selected based on significant statistical relationships. This means that the statistical procedure for selecting indicators involved relating a large number of variables to vulnerability in order to identify statistically significant factors. The results showed reliability of income and reliability of water resources to be good indicators of vulnerability. Many statistically significant variables as well as respective R2 of 0.988 and 0.825 confirm the foregoing. Another indicator was the Simpson index that measures diversification of agricultural production. The results show that vulnerability to climate change was highest for the households near the river and lowest for the inland village. Moreover, the results confirmed that most blacks that are practicing agriculture receive little if any support largely because available resources are highly skewed towards certain farmers rather than others.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:ufh/vital:11212 |
| Date | January 2013 |
| Creators | Sotsha, Kayalethu |
| Publisher | University of Fort Hare, Faculty of Science & Agriculture |
| Source Sets | South African National ETD Portal |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis, Masters, MSc Agric (Agricultural Economics) |
| Format | 143 leaves, pdf |
| Rights | University of Fort Hare |
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