The study is intended to identify relevant channels and possibly biasing factors with respect to fiscal multipliers, and thus to contribute to improving the precision of multiplier forecasts. This is done by, first, defining the concept of the multiplier used in the present study, presenting the main theoretical channels of influence as discussed in the literature and the problems of empirical identification. Second, by conducting a meta-regression analysis on the reported multipliers from a unique data set of 1069 multiplier observations and the respective study characteristics in order to derive quantitative stylzed facts.
Third, by developing a simple multiplier model that explicitly takes into account the time elapse of the multiplier process as an explanatory factor that has been largely overlooked by the relevant theoretical literature. Fourth, by identifying, for US macroeconomic time series data, the extent to which fiscal multiplier estimates could be biased in the presence of financial cycles that have not been taken into account by the relevant empirical literature.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:DRESDEN/oai:qucosa.de:bsz:ch1-qucosa-155008 |
| Date | 10 November 2014 |
| Creators | Gechert, Sebastian |
| Contributors | TU Chemnitz, Fakultät für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Prof. Dr. Fritz Helmedag, Prof. Dr. Fritz Helmedag, Prof. Dr. Horst Gischer |
| Publisher | Universitätsbibliothek Chemnitz |
| Source Sets | Hochschulschriftenserver (HSSS) der SLUB Dresden |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | doc-type:doctoralThesis |
| Format | application/pdf, text/plain, application/zip |
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