Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2006. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The Kyoto protocol was signed early in 2005 whereby Annexure 1 industrialised countries committed to reducing their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. South Africa signed the Protocol. however being a developing
country it has no GHG emissions reduction target for the first commitment
period until 2012. Primary aluminium is a GHG intensive global commodity to
which Southem Africa contributes significantly. This dissertation aims to
investigate how the profitability of the Southern African primary aluminium
sector may be affected by Kyoto Protocol GHG restrictions even though the
smelters are situated in non-Annexure 1 countries.
A Delphi-type survey is conducted to gather opinions on identified pressures
and drivers that could affect the industry. The survey respondents indicate
that the greatest impact will occur from internal pressures from holding
companies. Further pressure will originate from external sources namely
government, Non Governmental Organisations, shareholders and investors.
Direct manufacturing costs are not expected to increase as a result of the
Protocol. Rather. industry changes are expected to be the result of internal
and external pressures. Opportunities for Clean Development Mechanism
(COM) projects are rated as highly importance and are strongly
recommended.
Various strategies are identified and presented in a matrix to compare the
effect of each on the various identified pressures and drivers. From the matrix
it is observed that the majority of the selected strategies have a profound
impact on the internal and external pressures.
From this research report it is recommended that a cooperative proactive
strategy be followed . focusing initially on low cost GHG emissions reduction
projects and rigorously pursuing COM projects. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die Kyoto Protokol, waardeur Anneks 1 geindustraliseerde lande hul daartoe verbind het om hul kweekhuis gas (GHG) emissies te verminder, is vroeg in 2005 onderteken. Suidelike Afrika het die Protokol onderteken, maar weens sy status as ontwikkelende land, het dit geen GHG emissieverminderingsdoelwit vir die eerste verpligtingsfase tot en met 2012 nie.
Primere aluminium is 'n GHG intensiewe globale kommoditeit waartoe
Suidelike Afrika 'n groot bydrae lewer.
Hierdie tesis poog om ondersoek in te stel na die impak van Protokol GHG beperkings op die
winsgewendheid van die Suidelike Afrika primere aluminium sektor, ten spyle
daarvan dat die smelters in nie-Annex 1 lande gelee is.
'n Delphi-tipe opname was geloods om opinies in te win oor geidentifiseerde
drukpunte en drywers wat 'n impak kon he op die industrie. Die respondente
het aangedui dat die grootste impak sal kom van interne druk van
beheermaatskappye. Addisionele druk sal afkomstig wees van eksteme
bronne soos die regering, Nie-regerings organisasies (NGO's), aandeelhouers
en beleggers. Daar word nie verwag dat die direkte vervaardigingskoste sal
eskaleer as gevolg van die Protokol nie. Daar word eerder verwag dat
veranderinge in die industrie die gevolg sal wees van interne en eksterne
druk. Geleenthede vir skoon-ontwikkelings meganisme (COM) projekte is
geweldig belangrik en word sterk aanbeveel.
Verskeie strategiee word geidentifiseer en voorgele in 'n matriks om
sodoende 'n vergelyking te tref tussen die effek wat elk het op die onderskeie
drukpunte en drywers. Uit die matriks kan afgelei word dat die meerderheid
strategiee 'n diepgaande invloed het op die inteme en eksterne drukpunte.
Hierdie navorsingsverslag beveel aan dat 'n samewerkende proaktiewe
strategie gevolg word, wat aanvanklik sal fokus op lae-koste GHG emissieverminderingsprojekte, asook die nougesette najaag van CDM projekte.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:sun/oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/50666 |
| Date | 12 1900 |
| Creators | Pittendrigh, Alistair |
| Contributors | Volschenk, Jako, Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Graduate School of Business. |
| Publisher | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| Source Sets | South African National ETD Portal |
| Language | en_ZA |
| Detected Language | Unknown |
| Type | Thesis |
| Format | 81 p. : ill. |
| Rights | Stellenbosch University |
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