High-speed rail (HSR) is commonly assumed to cause fewer specific greenhouse gas emissions than alternative transportation systems such as aviation or road transport. Therefore, HSR projects leading to a mode shift from these modes to HSR are supposed to be beneficial to the environment by mitigating climate change. HSR can also provide new and speedy connections between peripheral regions and economic centers. It is thought that by providing peripheral regions with easier access to goods and service only available in large urban centers, HSR improves the economic competitiveness of these regions as well as spatial equity.
To investigate the current state of research regarding these issues, I first systematize accessibility and environmental impacts from transportation in general and HSR specifically. I then carry out a systematic literature review across three scientific databases, using two search strings, resulting in a literature corpus of 79 unique sources. Results from these sources are analyzed and summarized in five research fields: spatial equity, carbon intensity, mode shift to HSR, induced HSR demand and complementary effects.
I find that HSR improves accessibility of all regions, even those that have no direct access to HSR service. However, the impact on economic growth and spatial equity can be negative or positive depending on case characteristics. Carbon intensity of HSR is highly variable, in some cases even exceeding that of air transport. I find extreme cases of 10 and 283 gCO2/pkm. High ridership, a low share of tunnel and bridge sections, as well as a green electricity mix are crucial to ensure that HSR exhibits lower specific carbon emissions than alternative modes and has the potential to reduce overall GHG emissions. Mode shift and induced demand are also highly dependent on the individual project’s case, with induced demand typically being between 10 and 20 % of the total HSR demand. Concrete values of complementary effects, which is the additional demand in modes competing with HSR, are the least extensively studied. Especially air transport appears not only to compete with HSR, but also to exhibit several complementary relationships such as price competition and an increased attractiveness of long-haul flights. I conclude that, assuming no additional policy measures being taken, expanding HSR does not lead to a reduction of overall greenhouse gas emissions from air transport. The environmental impact of a HSR project can be estimated through a vigorous project appraisal process only.
Important policy implications include the enhancement of appraisal processes as well as the overall need for deploying HSR projects in push-and-pull packages with other, supply-restricting policies. Future research should direct more attention towards HSR and airfares. I propose study designs for a national flight emission study and including passengers’ destination choice in existing research approaches. I also suggest using the results of this student research paper to carry out a Monte Carlo simulation on HSR projects’ recuperation periods.:1 Introduction 1
2 Definition and Systematization 3
2.1 High-Speed Rail 3
2.2 Impact 4
2.3 Systematization of Accessibility Impacts 4
2.4 Systematization of Environmental Impacts 7
2.5 Causal Chains and Relevance 10
3 Methodology 14
4 Results 16
4.1 Descriptive Statistics 16
4.2 Field 1: Spatial Equity 22
4.2.1 Studies 22
4.2.2 Methodological Remarks 28
4.2.3 Interim Conclusions 29
4.3 Field 2: Carbon Intensity 30
4.3.1 Operation 30
4.3.2 Infrastructure 32
4.3.3 Comprehensive Studies 34
4.3.4 Methodological Remarks 39
4.3.5 Interim Conclusions 41
4.4 Field 3: Mode Shift to HSR 45
4.4.1 Theoretical Models 46
4.4.2 Ex-Ante Project Demand Evaluations 46
4.4.3 Ex-Post Project Demand Evaluations 47
4.4.4 Regression Studies 49
4.4.5 Methodological Remarks 53
4.4.6 Interim Conclusions 55
4.5 Field 4: Induced HSR Demand 58
4.5.1 Theoretical Models 58
4.5.2 Ex-Ante Demand Evaluations 58
4.5.3 Ex-Post Demand Evaluations 59
4.5.4 Methodological Remarks 60
4.5.5 Interim Conclusions 60
4.6 Field 5: Complementary Effects 61
4.6.1 Competition between HSR and Airlines 62
4.6.2 Competition between Airports 63
4.6.3 Integration of HSR and Air Transport 64
4.6.4 Short-Haul Substitution under Capacity Constraints 65
4.6.5 Economic Stimulation 65
4.6.6 Methodological Remarks 66
4.6.7 Interim Conclusions 66
5 Discussion 69
5.1 Methodology and Delimitations 69
5.2 Overall Impact of HSR on Spatial Equity 71
5.3 Overall Impact of HSR on the Environment 71
5.4 Policy Implications 73
5.5 Further Research Needs 74
Bibliography 76
List of Laws 85
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:DRESDEN/oai:qucosa:de:qucosa:93369 |
| Date | 16 August 2024 |
| Creators | Arning, Leonard |
| Contributors | Becker, Udo J., Gerlach, Julia, Technische Universität Dresden |
| Source Sets | Hochschulschriftenserver (HSSS) der SLUB Dresden |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion, doc-type:StudyThesis, info:eu-repo/semantics/StudyThesis, doc-type:Text |
| Rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
| Relation | urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa-201073, qucosa:29431 |
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