根據1990年住宅普查結果顯示，臺灣的住宅自有率為78.44%，空屋率為13.29%。此結果相較於1980年住宅普查的自有率79.11%與空屋率13.09%，發現十年來此兩住宅現象變化不大，其中臺灣的空屋現象與歐美國家一般正常3~5%的空屋水準比較，明顯偏高。然而臺灣長期面對如此高的空屋率，其背後的涵意、原因與影響為何？是否隱含臺灣住宅投資的偏高資本利得預期與偏低的持有成本及租金等現象？值得研究。尤其臺灣近年來的偏高房價並未因為高空屋率而有明顯的下降情形，此又代表何種意義？更重要的是：政府面對如此高的空屋現象，應有何住宅政策以為因應？
本研究首先透過兩次住宅普查與臺灣電力公司表燈用電不足底度資料澄清臺灣地區各縣市空屋狀況。發現臺灣地區歷年空屋率均相當高，而至1993年底空屋數量持續增加達到歷年最高記錄：約76萬戶空屋，空屋率約為14%，此現象預期對未來房地產市場不景氣有嚴重深遠影響。本文其次利用計量經濟模型分析：一、影響臺灣空屋率的主要原因，藉此解釋臺灣各地區不同的空屋狀況；二、空屋率與價格間之相互關係，並計算臺灣地區各縣市歷年自然空屋率，以此探討現行空屋率是否合理；三、利用信義房屋公司之仲介資料，分析在市場上空屋所有權人之屬性及住宅屬性對住宅成為空屋機率之影響。最後，針對過去空屋現況與上述研究，研擬提高空屋利用之策略，並建議政府檢討國宅政策，有效利用空屋，從根本上解決日益嚴重之住宅問題。 / According to 1990 Taiwan's housing census, the homeowner occupancy rate was 78.44% and the vacancy rate was 13.29%. The result compared with homeowner occupancy rate 79.11% and vacancy rate 13.09% of 1980 census, it was not much different during the past 10 years. Comparing with the reasonable vacancy rate, 4-5% in the most western countries, the-vacancy rate in Taiwan was very high obviously. What are the implication, reasons, and impacts of high vacancy rate? Does it imply the expectation of high capital gain of housing investment as well as the low holding costs and rents in Taiwan? The most critical issue is what kind of housing policy should be proposed to solve the problems of high housing vacancy.
This thesis used housing census data and under minimum use of electricity data of Taiwan Power Company to clarify the phenomenon of housing vacancy in Taiwan during every past year. ffe found that housing vacancy rate was always high, 14.58% in average (1.2% in standard deviation) during 1980-1992. Up to the end of 1993, the stock of vacant house was about 760,000 units and the vacancy rate was about 14%. ffe then established econometric model to analyze the following topics:
(1) the reasons of high vacancy rate in Taiwan;
(2)the relationship between vacancy rate and housing price, and then to caculate the natural vacancy rate of each city in Taiwan;
(3)the possibility of a housing unit to be vacant was effected by characteristics of housing itself and its homeowner.
Finally, we suggest some housing strategies and policies to solve the high vacancy issue to the government.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/B2002003689 |
| Creators | 彭建文, Peng, Cheng Wen |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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