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Global Trends of Forced Migration: A Panel Data Analysis 2009-2021

This thesis aims to uncover key factors shaping patterns of forced human mobility within and across borders. A panel dataset was constructed covering 161 countries during 2009 - 2021. The dataset includes country-level statistics on internally displaced persons and cross-border refugees, as well as indicators capturing economic, sociopolitical, and climate/environmental conditions in each country. Leveraging this multidimensional dataset, a gravity-type migration model was estimated to infer how different factors may operate in tandem in driving internal displacements and refugee migration. For internal displacements, conflict, age-dependency ratio, arid environment, and economic conditions play key roles. For cross-border refugee migration, political instability is a primary driver, followed by climate vulnerability, lower urbanization, and socioeconomic factors. The findings imply the mechanisms underlying human mobility can be complex, differing depending on whether the movement is within or across borders. Such difference underscores the need for comprehensive modeling approaches that can recognize refugee migration as a multi-stage process from initial displacement to onward migration and identify distinctive drivers at each stage of mobility.

Identiferoai:union.ndltd.org:UPSALLA1/oai:DiVA.org:mau-69381
Date January 2024
CreatorsHan, Jiyoung
PublisherMalmö universitet, Institutionen för globala politiska studier (GPS)
Source SetsDiVA Archive at Upsalla University
LanguageEnglish
Detected LanguageEnglish
TypeStudent thesis, info:eu-repo/semantics/bachelorThesis, text
Formatapplication/pdf
Rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess

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