Thesis (MBA) --Stellenbosch University, 2001. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Africa's stock markets are considered by many emerging market specialists to have
great potential for investors. Developing models which track share/financial indices
provide a means of disseminating information about market performance. With the
active move towards regional stock markets, regional indices will provide an
important tool for performance of the region.
Stock market indices provide information to investors and portfolio managers about
the performance of various markets or groups of stocks. Investors can use the
movement of indices as a way of assessing market trends and opportunities for
investment. As economic integration increases in Africa, it will become increasingly
important to have markers of regional market performance.
This study project collected weekly market capitalisation data from the markets in
the various regions, which were utilised to construct regional all-share indices for
the year 2000.
Regional indices for three of the four regions within Africa were constructed. The
three indices are the EASDEX (for East Africa), the NADEX (for North Africa) and
the WADEX (for West Africa). The weekly market capitalisation data were further
utilised to construct an All-Africa index.
The Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) dominates the Southern African
Development Community (SADC) regional market's total market capitalisation. Similarly the SAOG region dominates the total market capitalisation for Africa. The
JSE contributes 59% to the total market capitalisation of Africa (January 2000).
The All-Africa index moves together with the SADIX (SAOG regional index)
confirming the high weighting of South Africa in the total market capitalisation of
Africa.
Encouraging economic growth throughout Africa and not just in Southern Africa will
assist the continent as a whole to attract market capital. In the long term this should
increase market growth in the other regions of Africa and enable investors to
diversify into Africa.
There are certainly opportunities for investors in Africa. The low correlation between
Egypt and the other two North African markets allows for diversification within the
North African Region.
Nigeria has been the market that had the highest returns during 2000, one that
outperformed many international markets.
SADIX has low or negative correlation coefficients with the rest of the African
individual as well as the regional market indices.
Historically emerging markets are volatile and risky. The case for diversification
into emerging markets originates from the high economic growth potential of
emerging markets, together with low correlation with other developed markets. The
development of All-Share indices, which track market performance on the African
continent, will assist both potential institutional as well as individual investors. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Afrika se effektemarkte word deur baie opkomende markspesialiste beskou as
potensieel gunstig vir beleggers. Deur modelle wat aandele/finansiële indekse volg
te ontwikkel, word 'n middel voorsien om informasie oor markprestasie te ontleed.
Met die aktiewe beweging na streeksaandelemarkte, sal streeksindekse 'n
belangrike maatstaf vir die prestasie van 'n area voorsien.
Aandelemarkindekse voorsien informasie aan beleggers en portefeulje bestuurders
oor die prestasie van verskeie markte of aandelegroepe. Beleggers kan die
beweging van die indekse gebruik om marktendense te ontleed asook om
geleenthede vir investering te identifiseer. Dit sal belangriker raak om maatstawwe
van streeksmarkprestasie te hê soos ekonomiese integrasie in Afrika toeneem.
Hierdie studieprojek het weeklikse markkapitalisasie data van die markte in die
verskeie areas versamel, wat gebruik is om 'n streeksindeks van alle aandele vir die
jaar 2000 saam te stel.
Streeksindekse vir drie van die vier streke binne Afrika is saamgestel. Die drie
indekse is die EASDEX (Oos Afrika), die NADEX (Noord Afrika) en die WADEX
(Wes Afrika). Die weeklikse markkapitalisasie data is verder aangewend om 'n Alle-
Afrika indeks saam te stel.
Die Johannesburgse Effektebeurs (JEB) domineer die totale markkapitalisasie van
die Suidelike Afrika Ontwikkelingsgemeenskap (SAOG) se streeksmark. Insgelyk domineer die SAOG streek die totale markkapitalisasie vir Afrika. Die JES dra 59%
by tot die totale markkapitalisasie van Afrika (Januarie 2000).
Die Alle-Afrika indeks beweeg saam met die SADIX (SAOG streeksindeks) wat die
gewigtigheid van Suid Afrika in die totale markkapitalisasie van Afrika bevestig.
Deur ekonomiese groei regdeur Afrika en nie bloot in Suider Afrika nie, aan te
spoor, sal dit die vasteland as 'n geheel steun om markkapitaal aan te trek. Op die
lange duur behoort dit groei te bevorder in die ander streke van Afrika en beleggers
in staat te stel om binne Afrika te diversifiseer.
Daar is ongetwyfeld geleenthede vir beleggers in Afrika. Die lae onderlinge
afhanklikheid tussen Egipte en die ander twee Noord Afrika markte laat
diversifikasie binne die Noord Afrika streek toe.
Nigerië is die mark met die hoogste opbrengste tydens 2000 en het selfs baie
internasionale markte oortref.
SADIX het lae of negatiewe korrelasiekoeffisiënte met die res van die Afrika
individuele-, sowel as die streeksmarkindekse.
Histories is opkomende markte onstabiel en riskant. Partydigheid vir diversifikasie
in opkomende markte ontstaan vanuit die hoë ekonomiese groeipotensiaal van
hierdie markte tesame met lae onderlinge afhanklikheid met ander ontwikkelde
lande. Deur indekse van alle aandele wat markprestasie op die Afrika-vasteland
volg saam te stel, sal beide potensiële institusionele, sowel as individuele beleggers
se besluite/ontledings ondersteun word.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:sun/oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/52498 |
| Date | 12 1900 |
| Creators | Fish, Therese |
| Contributors | Biekpe, N., Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic & Management Sciences. Graduate School of Business. |
| Publisher | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| Source Sets | South African National ETD Portal |
| Language | en_ZA |
| Detected Language | Unknown |
| Type | Thesis |
| Format | 63 p. : ill. |
| Rights | Stellenbosch University |
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