Biotechnology generated solutions have been hailed as potential cures to many of the problems facing the world today. New therapeutics will eradicate disease, new agricultural products will solve food shortages, and industrial application will improve productivity with reduced environmental impact. Despite the much anticipated benefits of biotechnology, the industry faces significant challenges that must be overcome in the coming decades. Biotechnology is an inherently complex field with a high degree of uncertainty and associated risks. In addition to the risk associated with project development and delivery, businesses looking to extract an economic return from the provision of biotechnology products and services face significant financial risk. This is exacerbated by the long lead times in biotechnology product development and the expensive nature of research and development. This thesis looks investigates the multi faceted problem of biotechnology valuation in Australia using a multi method approach designed to provide greater insight into the valuation challenges facing the industry and identify key value drivers. The approach incorporates a broad qualitative investigation, complimented by more focused quantitative studies into specific valuation issues surrounding IPO and project valuation. Australian biotechnology firms face a significant challenge to raise sufficient capital in order to remain internationally competitive. The current industry structure and funding mechanisms encourage creation of small firms with narrow pipelines, exacerbating the risk of company failure and acting as an impediment to sustainability and, therefore, investment in the sector. Despite the challenges facing the Australian biotechnology industry, the nation possesses a competitive advantage in the strength of local science which, if fully leveraged, should see the development of an internationally competitive industry. Through improved funding mechanisms which encourage the creation of sustainable business models, increased investor participation in the industry should see a greater portion of the value generated through biotechnology retained by local participants. An IPO is likely the largest single capital raising in a company's history. A quantitative investigation into the factors influencing the amount of underpricing and money left on the table for Australian biotechnology IPOs found that the amount of money left on the table was more critical than the level of underpricing. Additionally the impact of market sentiment on biotechnology IPOs was investigated with increased media coverage found to be positively related to the amount of money left on the table. Using project valuation models, the drivers of value over the life of a typical biotechnology project were identified. Key drivers of biotechnology value are commercial viability, coupled with development cost and time. The ability of management to control these elements is crucial. Analysis of project valuations using a traditional DCF model found value estimates exhibited a greater level of uncertainty than those calculated using more contemporary methods of decision tree and real option analysis. Additionally, incorporation of management flexibility into valuation assessment using real options techniques increased the perceived value of biotechnology projects. The value of management flexibility was found to be most relevant for early stage projects where the option to abandon was found to greatly influence values.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:ADTP/210254 |
| Date | January 2007 |
| Creators | Jens, Paul Justin, paul.jens@csl.com.au |
| Publisher | RMIT University. Economics, Finance and Marketing |
| Source Sets | Australiasian Digital Theses Program |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Rights | http://www.rmit.edu.au/help/disclaimer, Copyright Paul Justin Jens |
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