Thesis (DPhil (Political Science))--Stellenbosch University, 2009. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The main problem investigated in this study is why a homogeneous nation with a
high literacy rate such as Lesotho has had so many breakdowns of democracy since
independence in 1966. Lesotho is completely surrounded and economically
dependent on South Africa and depends mostly on the external sources of income
(migrant remittances, customs revenues and foreign aid). Why has this democracy
not consolidated?
For the assessment of the consolidation of Lesotho’s democracy, this study adopted
the multivariate model of Bratton and Van de Walle. This model uses institutional as
well as socio-economic variables. In the application of this model various other
authors were used as well. Schedler dealt with the concept of breakdowns, whereas
Linz and Stepan emphasised institutions and Przeworski et. al and Leftwich also
utilised multivariate models, including socio-economic factors.
Upon the attainment of independence, the King became a constitutional monarch
within a parliamentary system. The monarchy was from the beginning of
independence uncomfortable with this status that granted him limited powers. The
democratic regime inaugurated with the 1965 elections lasted only till 1970, when
the ruling party under Chief Leabua Jonathan which did not support the monarchy,
declared the election results invalid and suspended the constitution after his ruling
party lost to the opposition. But Chief Leabua Jonathan was toppled from state
power in 1986 by the military. The military ruled for eight years. It was clear that the
monarchy (eager for executive powers) and the military became factors in the
survival of democracy in Lesotho.
Democratic rule was relaunched in 1993. The 1993 and 1998 elections were
followed by violent power struggles. This time the constituency-based electoral
system served as catalyst for the political crises and was blamed. This is because
seats did not reflect electoral support as opposition parties were not adequately
represented in parliament. Constitutional reforms followed and in 2002 democratic
rule was reintroduced. The 2002 and 2007 elections were conducted under the
Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) system, which is a hybrid between constituencyiv
based and proportional representation. Despite the electoral reforms, uncertainties
still remained as the result of escalating socio-economic problems.
This study addresses the ways in which the monarchy, the military, the electoral
system and the socio-economic factors contributed to the breakdown of democracy
in Lesotho. The original aspect of this study lies in the novel set of questions that
have not been asked before. It fills the gap in the literature on the 2007 elections and
the workings of the new electoral system by comparing the 2002 and the 2007
elections.
Despite the constitutional reforms in 2002, the 2007 elections resulted in the new set
of problems. The problem of the Lesotho MMP system is how it has to be
operationalised and the lack of understanding among the politicians and electorates
on how it works. This situation is exacerbated by the absence of legal and clear
guidelines on how the translation of votes into seats– especially for candidates under
proportional representation (PR) – has to be undertaken in cases where there are
coalitions between parties. This institutional reform of the electoral system has not
added any value for the development of democracy as losing parties have refused to
adhere to the rules.
Apart from the electoral system, some of the other core problems are older and
institutional. The monarchy has over the years been at the root of some of the
country’s democratic breakdowns. It also had influence in the military. The military
instituted a period of authoritarianism and managed the transition to democratic rule
in the early 1990s.The monarchy and the military continued to destabilise the post-
1993 democratic governments until 1998, after which the electoral system was
reformed.
But the problems are not only institutional. Lesotho is a democracy with low per
capita income. It also has high levels of inequalities as well as high unemployment.
Lesotho also has one of the highest HIV/Aids rates in Southern Africa. The country
performs poorly when measured against aspects of the United Nations Human
Development Index (HDI) such as life expectancy, mortality rates and standard of
living. It is the poorest country, with the lowest HDI of Southern Africa’s “free
nations”, according to Freedom House. These socio-economic problems have
impacted negatively on the prospects of democratic consolidation.
One positive aspect is the high literacy rate of over 80%. But this has not benefited
Lesotho’s democracy in any meaningful way as most of its educated people are
working in South Africa. The country does not have a sizeable middle class, while
civil society, except for churches, is also weak. While the monarchy and military have
been successfully depoliticised, Lesotho’s democracy remains unconsolidated
because of weaknesses in the electoral system (lack of understanding of its
operationalisation) and continuing problems of socio-economic development. Its
ethnic homogeneity is not an asset either as other divisions have recurred all the
time. The overall conclusion is therefore that although most institutional factors
responsible for democratic breakdowns in the past have been overcome, the socioeconomic
variables such as poverty, weak civil society, small middle class and
socio-economic inequality will hinder consolidation for a long time to come. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die hoofprobleem wat in hierdie studie ondersoek word, is hoekom ’n homogene
nasie met ’n hoë geletterdheidsyfer soos Lesotho, soveel onderbrekings
(“breakdowns”) van die demokrasie sedert onafhanklikwording beleef het.
Vir die beoordeling van konsolidasie van Lesotho se demokrasie is van ’n model van
multivariëteit gebruik gemaak. Dit is gebaseer op die denke van Bratton en
Van de Walle wat van sowel institusionele as sosio-ekonomiese veranderlikes
gebruik maak.
Die konsep van afbreuk (“breakdown”) is van Schedler afkomstig. Linz en Stepan
maak uitsluitlik van institusionele veranderlikes gebruik, terwyl Przeworski et. al en
Leftwich ook van multi-veranderlikes gebruik maak. Hulle denke het die teoretiese
raamwerk van hierdie studie gevorm.
Heeltemal omring deur, en afhanklik van Suid-Afrika, word die Koninkryk van
Lesotho geteister deur politieke onstabiliteit. Die koning het ’n grondwetlike monargie
binne ’n parlementêre stelsel geword. Die monargie was egter sedert die begin van
onafhank-likheid ongemaklik hiermee. Die demokratiese regime het in 1965 met
verkiesings tot stand gekom. Maar dit het slegs tot 1970 geduur toe die regerende
party van Hoofman Leabua Jonathan die verkiesing verloor het, en die grondwet
opgeskort het. Hyself is in 1986 in ’n staatsgreep deur die weermag omvergewerp.
Dit was toe reeds duidelik dat die monargie en die militêre faktore in die oorlewing
van demokrasie in Lesotho geword het.
Demokratiese regering is in 1993 heringestel. Die 1993 en 1998 verkiesings het
egter weer geweld opgelewer. Nou was die kiesafdeling-gebaseerde kiesstelsel
geblameer omdat setels nie met steun vir partye gekorreleer het nie. Grondwetlike
hervormings is ingestel waarna demokrasie weer in 2002 heringestel is. Die
verkiesings van 2002 en 2007 het onder reëls van ’n hibriede stelsel van
proposionele verteenwoordiging sowel as kiesafdelings plaasgevind. Daar was
stabiliteit, maar onsekerhede was as gevolg van ingewikkeldhede van die stelsel wat
nie opgelos is nie.
Die studie ontleed die rol van die monargie, die weermag, die kiesstelsel en vlak van
sosio-ekonomiese ontwikkeling in die opeenvolgende demokratiese ineenstortings in
Lesotho. Die oorspronklikheid van hierdie studie is dat vrae gestel word wat nog nie
voorheen met betrekking tot Lesotho gedoen is nie. Dit vul dus ’n gaping in die
literatuur, ook wat die onlangse verkiesings van 2007 betref.
Ten spyte van die grondwetlike hervormings van 2002, het die 2007 verkiesings
nuwe probleme opgelewer. Die probleem is dat sowel die kiesers as die politici nie
altyd verstaan hoe die formules van die hibriede stelsel werk nie. Daar is ook ’n
afwesigheid van riglyne oor hoe om stemme in setels om te sit waar kaolisies
deelgeneem het.
Afgesien van die verkiesingstelsel, is van die ander probleme ouer, maar ook
institusioneel van aard. Die monargie soos hierbo gestel, is deel van hierdie
probleme. Dit het soos aangedui ook ’n invloed op die militêre gehad. Beide het die
demokrasie gedestabiliseer tot ná 1993 en 1998, waarna die nuwe verkiesingstelsel
nuwe probleme opgelewer het.
Die probleme in Lesotho is egter nie net van ’n institusionele aard nie. Lesotho is ’n
arm demokrasie met lae per capita inkome, hoë ongelykhede en werkloosheid,
asook van die hoogste HIV/Vigs syfers in Suider Afrika. Lesotho vaar ook swak op
die Verenigde Nasies se Menslike Ontwikkelingsindeks. Dit is ook die armste van
Freedom House se nasies wat as “vry” geklassifiseer word.
’n Positiewe aspek is die hoë geletterdheidsyfer van 80%. Maar dit het Lesotho
oënskynlik nie gehelp om die demokrasie volhoubaar te maak nie. Die land het
byvoorbeeld nie ’n beduidende middelklas nie, terwyl die burgerlike samelewing met
uitsondering van die kerke, ook swak is. Terwyl die monargie en die militêre deesdae
gedepolitiseer is, is die demokrasie nog nie gekonsolideer nie. Die redes hiervoor is
die probleme met die kiesstelsel en voortgesette lae ekonomiese ontwikkeling.
Etniese homogeniteit is ook skynbaar nie ’n bate nie, want ander verdelings ontstaan
deurentyd. Die hoofkonklusie van hierdie studie is dus dat alhoewel Lesotho die
institusionele faktore wat vir demokratiese afbreuk in die verlede verantwoordelik
was oorkom het, die sosio-ekonomiese veranderlikes soos armoede, swak
burgerlike samelewing, klein middelklas en ongelykheid steeds konsolidasie nog vir
’n lang tyd sal belemmer.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:sun/oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/1136 |
| Date | 12 1900 |
| Creators | Monyane, Chelete |
| Contributors | Du Toit, P. V. D. P., Breytenbach, Willie, Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences. Dept. of Political Science. |
| Publisher | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| Source Sets | South African National ETD Portal |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis |
| Rights | Stellenbosch University |
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