Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2008. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The ultimate goal of the African Union is full political and economic integration, which
includes a monetary union with a common currency for all member states of the African
Union. This monetary integration is proposed to take place in two stages: firstly, through five
regions, and secondly, through complete integration.
This report examines current trade data for member states of the African Union using k
means duster analysis to group countries according to trade patterns. Analysis was
performed for the actual US dollar value of trade, as well as considering only the presence or
absence of trade.
There are limitations to the data collected: firstly, they are annual data, which masks
fluctuations in trade due to economic conditions or political developments. Secondly, they
are subject to missing or under-reported values. The focus of this research report was to
consider trade figures for the first time, and the limitations were considered acceptable in
view of the aim of achieving a first approximation of results.
When considering all solutions, there are overlaps between clusters, but no definite patterns
emerge that are common to all analyses. Considering the F and Euclidean distances of all
solutions, the best appears to be that for clusters derived from analysing trade figures
between Africa and its trading partners outside Africa. Further analysis of this solution failed
to demonstrate viable clusters.
The final conclusion to be made from this analysis is that k means clustering of trade figures
for member states of the African Union does not generate viable clusters that could be used
as steps towards full monetary integration in Africa.
Given this conclusion it is recommended that the stepwise progression towards full monetary
integration be considered by utilising existing economic arrangements, i.e. by using the five
Regional Economic Communities proposed by the African Union. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die uiteindelike doel van die Afrika-unie is volledige politieke en ekonomiese integrasie, wat 'n
monetere unie met 'n gemeenskaplike geldeenheid vir al die lidstate van die Afrika-unie
insluit. Hierdie monetere integrasie word in twee stadiums beoog: eers deur vyf streke, en
daarna deur volledige integrasie.
Hierdie verslag ondersoek die huidige handelsdata vir lidstate van die Afrika-unie deur k gemiddelde trosanalise
te gebruik om lande volgens handelspatrone te groepeer. 'n Analise is
ook gedoen van die werklike VS-dollarwaarde van handel, en deur die aanwesigheid of
afwesigheid van handel in aanmerking te neem.
Daar is beperkings op die data wat ingesamel is: eerstens is dit jaarlikse data, wat
skommelings in handel as gevolg van ekonomiese toestande of politieke ontwikkelings
verberg. Tweedens is hulle onderworpe aan ontbrekende of ondergerapporteerde waardes.
Die fokus van hierdie navorsingsverslag was dus om handelsyfers vir die eerste keer te
oorweeg, en die beperkings is aanvaarbaar beskou in die lig van die doel om 'n eerste
benadering van resultate te verkry.
Wanneer aile oplossings oorweeg word, is daar oorvleueling tussen trosse, maar geen
definitiewe patrone ontstaan wat vir alle analises geld nie. Wanneer die F- en Euklidiese
afstande van alle oplossings oorweeg word, lyk dit asof die beste die trosse is wat verkry is
uit die analise van handelsyfers tussen Afrika en sy handelsvennote buite Afrika. Verdere
analise van hierdie oplossing het nie lewensvatbare trosse aangedui nie.
Die finale gevolgtrekking wat uit hierdie analise gemaak kan word, is dat k gemidderde trosvorming
van handelsyfers vir lidstate van die Afrika-unie nie lewensvatbare
trosse genereer wat gebruik kan word as stappe in die rigting van volledige monetere
integrasie in Afrika nie.
Met die oog op hierdie gevolgtrekking word daar aanbeveel dat die stapsgewyse vordering na
volledige monetere integrasie oorweeg moet word deur bestaande ekonomiese reelings te
gebruik, d.w.s. deur die vyf Streeksekonomiese Gemeenskappe te gebruik wat deur die
Afrika-unie voorgestel is.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:sun/oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/8327 |
| Date | 12 1900 |
| Creators | Mather, Sandra |
| Contributors | Corbett, Thalma, Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Graduate School of Business. |
| Publisher | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| Source Sets | South African National ETD Portal |
| Language | en_ZA |
| Detected Language | Unknown |
| Type | Thesis |
| Rights | Stellenbosch University |
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