摘要
本研究主要目的在於檢測過去學者以Ohlson model（1995）所從事會計資訊（帳面價值、盈餘及盈餘組成因素）之價值攸關性研究，在未考慮「其他資訊」的情況下，其結果是否會受到景氣因素之影響。同時根據在不同景氣狀況下，會計資訊與股價關聯性之差異，也可判斷台灣股市在景氣狀況好（多頭）時，投資人是否會「過度反應」會計資訊所傳遞的訊息，因而對未來產生過度樂觀的預期，造成股價「超漲」的現象。
實證結果顯示，帳面價值、盈餘及盈餘組成項目（包括營業利益、銷貨毛利及研發費用）與股價之間確實存在顯著之關聯性，亦即具有價值攸關性；而再加入景氣因素作為虛擬變數後，也可發現景氣因素的確會影響投資人對企業未來異常盈餘的看法，進而改變會計資訊之價值攸關性，因此本研究以為過去學者將「其他資訊」視為殘差項之做法並不適當，未來在運用Ohlson model（1995）從事會計資訊之價值攸關性研究時，的確不能排除「其他資訊」的影響，至少應考慮到景氣因素的變化。同時，觀察景氣因素對會計資訊價值攸關性之影響，除了發現盈餘、營業利益、銷貨毛利及研發費用與股價之關聯性係景氣狀況較佳時顯著高於景氣狀況較差時外，帳面價值與股價之關聯性，同樣也會受到景氣因素的影響，故本研究以為在景氣狀況較佳時投資人的確會有「過度反應」會計資訊的現象。 / Abstract
The main purpose of this study is to examine whether the results of past research about the value relevance of accounting information, such as book values, earnings and earnings components, relying on Ohlson model (1995) without considering “other information” would be affected by the factor of business cycles. In addition, it could also determine if the investors in Taiwan would “overreact” the content of the accounting information in the better situation of business cycles (Bull market) according to different association between accounting information and stock prices in different business cycles.
The empirical results indicate that book values, earnings and earnings components are positively and significantly associated with stock prices; that is, they are value-relevant. When using the factor of business cycles as the dummy variable, the results find that it will affect the value relevance of accounting information. In the better situation of business cycles, the value relevance of earnings, operating income, gross profits and R & D expenses are greater than in the worse one. In addition, the association between book values and stock prices is also affected by the factor of business cycles. So it concludes that the investors in Taiwan really “overreact” the content of the accounting information in the better situation of business cycles (Bull market).
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0090353035 |
| Creators | 吳鈞麟 |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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