自1987年7月15日台灣宣佈解除戒嚴後，開放黨禁與報禁，民主開始蓬勃發展，人民也有充分表達意見自由的機會，而2000年3月總統大選後，台灣第一次發生政黨輪替，並首次出現少數政府，自此之後，執政黨與在野黨即經常性的發生衝突情形。2001年，更是台灣史上第一次 -2.17%的經濟成長率，瑞士洛桑國際管理學院（IMD）公布2006年世界競爭力排名為第18名，較2005年退步了7個名次，其中在全球61個評比的經濟體中，「政治不穩定風險」評比為第58名，實在有檢討的空間。
本文的研究目的，在於以1990 至2005台灣的選舉結果及國內生產毛額（GDP）成長率的時間序列季資料（quarterly time-series data），搭配計量模型的估計，探討台灣政治勢力的衝突（以泛藍與泛綠得票比率差距表示）對於國家整體經濟成長有何影響？最後，藉由研究政治衝突對立之程度對總體經濟成長之影響，研究提出具體政策及建議。本文主要的研究發現，政治衝突將顯著影響台灣經濟成長。換言之，當台灣政治衝突情形越激烈（即藍綠兩陣營支持度差距越小時），經濟成長率將會越低。此外，政府支出成長、投資成長與出口成長，也是影響台灣經濟成長的主要原因。
另外本文利用2001年的時間虛擬變數，探討一般認為2001年可能因結構性變動之關係，而造成當年度經濟成長率的下降。結果顯示在本估計式中支持這樣的假說，也就是在2001年確實有其它因素導致當年度經濟成長相對低於其他各年度之情形。 / Taiwan’s democracy has developed dramatically and its people have gotten opportunities to freely express themselves since the KMT（Kuo Min Tong, the nationalist party from mainland china） government released the prohibition on the founding of political parties and the granting of newspaper licenses on July 15, 1987. Authority rests with a minority government since the DPP came into power. Conflicts between the opposition and ruling parties in Taiwan have been increasing since the Presidential election in March, 2000. For the first time Taiwan’s economy growth declined about 2.17% in 2001. In 2006, Taiwan’s economy was ranked as the 18th most competitive in the world by the International Institute for Management Development in Switzerland (IMD), degraded 7 positions in 2005. In addition, Taiwan’s political stability ranked 58th among the 61 countries in the above research study. As a result, the author is attempting to research how the political conflicts influence the economy.
This research uses a model that estimates the election’s economic impact by combining Taiwanese election results with quarterly time-series ratios from Taiwan’s 1990 to 2005 GDP. The research focuses on how political conflicts impact overall economic growth in Taiwan. The survey used the difference between the ratio of votes for two political groups—the pan-blue and pan-green camps. Conclusions from the data found a low economic growth in the periods of intense political conflict. Moreover, economic growth is influenced by various factors, including overall government expenditures, investments and exports.
Since the 2001 economic decline was so precipitous, this analysis adopted a time variable and used 2001’s data for comparison. Of course, various factors might have caused 2001’s low economic growth rate, but the original hypothesis was supported by the reckon estimating type.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0093921012 |
| Creators | 黃依偉, HUANG, YI-WEI |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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