This dissertation includes three different topics concerning the political business cycles in developed countries. In the first section, we use annual data for 48 states from 1951 to 2004 by the method of instrumental variables estimation. We find that the partisan theory created in statewide via two channels including the partisanship effect which include the interactive relationships between president and governors or among governors, and the partisan ideology including the policy preferences are both potential shocks to a real business cycle.
Next, we investigate the theory of partisan cycles using panel cointegration and fully modified OLS techniques based on the same data as earlier. We propose the long-run co-movement and the causal relationships between partisan target and cycle variables. Meanwhile, the panel error correction model shows evidence of long-run unidirectional causality running from partisan variables to target variables. This shows that, in the long run, statewide economic performance must be directly based on politicians¡¦ concerns for policies and outcomes, as well as on exhibiting strong ideological differences in those preferences across parties in the United States. Overall, we contribute an essential reference to the voters.
Finally, a new government popularity index (GPI) is constructed and using variables that include real GDP, industrial production, the unemployment rate and the inflation rate as measures of bilateral activity correlation beginning in 1981Q1 and ending in 2005Q4 for 15 European countries. The estimation procedure is developed by rolling the correlation of bilateral activity every twenty quarters and running it on partisan variables, namely, as a kind of government popularity index and the difference between partisan ideologies combined with traditional bilateral trade intensity variables. Overall, a strong and striking empirical finding is uncovered: countries with closer popular governments, incumbent ideologies as well as trade links, tend to have more closely correlated business cycles.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:NSYSU/oai:NSYSU:etd-0627107-140155 |
| Date | 27 June 2007 |
| Creators | Chang, Chun-Ping |
| Contributors | Ming-Jang Weng, Yung-Nien Tung, Chih-Jen Shen, Yung-Hsiang Ying, Ming-Hua Huang |
| Publisher | NSYSU |
| Source Sets | NSYSU Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Archive |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Source | http://etd.lib.nsysu.edu.tw/ETD-db/ETD-search/view_etd?URN=etd-0627107-140155 |
| Rights | not_available, Copyright information available at source archive |
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