Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2008. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Internationally, a number of studies on property cycles have been undertaken. In
contrast very little academic research has been undertaken in South Africa. The
importance of the subject is once again become evident given the recent global
turbulence in both property and credit markets.
The central hypothesis of this study is that there exists a residential property
cycle in South Africa and that it can be identified and that furthermore there are
indicators that can identify the various stages that the property market finds itself
in and that these indicators can be used to forecast the property cycle.
A number of potential drivers of the property cycle were identified and analysed.
These drivers collectively propel the property cycle through its various cycle
stages. Not one of the drivers in isolation has the ability to move the cycle; it is
rather the correct combination of drivers at the right time that have the necessary
impact to make the changes in property price levels.
The study has identified the historical residential property cycle in South Africa
and identified the primary drivers of the property cycle. It was found that Interest
Rates, GOP, Population, Household Debt to Disposable Income ratio, Quantity of
Building Plans Approved and Building Cost Escalation are all material drivers in
defining the property cycle.
A statistical analysis in the form of multiple regression was applied to the above
variables and a statistical model was developed to forecast the property cycle. It
was found that the model has significant explanatory powers when the goodness
of fit was tested. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING:
Die sentraal onderstelling van hierdie studie is dat daar 'n residensiele eiendom
kringloop in Suid-afrika bestaan en dat dit geidentifiseer kan wees en dat
bowendien daar aanwysers wat die verskeie stadiums van die eiendom mark kan
identifiseer vind en dat hierdie aanwysers gebruik kan word vir voorspelling van
die eiendom kringloop.
'n Aantal potensiele drywers van die eiendom kringloop was geidentifiseer en gean
ali seer. Hierdie drywers gesamentlik dryf die eiendom kringloop deur sy
verskeie kringloop stadiums voort. Nie een van die drywers in isolasie het die
vermoe om die kringloop te beweeg nie; dit is liewer die korrekte kombinasie van
drywers op tyd wat die nodige impak het om die veranderinge in eiendom prys
vlakke te maak.
Die studie het die historiese residensiele eiendom kringloop in Suid-afrika
geidentifiseer en die primere drywers van die eiendom kringloop. Dit was gevind
dat Rentekoerse, GOP, Populasie, Huishouding Skuld tot Weggooibare Inkomste
Verhouding, Hoeveelheid van Gebou Pia nne Goedgekeur en Gebou Kos
Eskilasie is almal materiaal drywers in definieer van die eiendom kringloop.
'n Statisties analisering was aangewend aan die bo onkonstante en 'n statistiese
skema was ontwikkel om voorspelling van die eiendom kringloop te bepaal. Dit
was gevind dat die skema beduidende verduidelike kragte het wanneer die
goedheid van pas getoets was.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:sun/oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/15053 |
| Date | 12 1900 |
| Creators | Myburgh, Craig |
| Contributors | Smith, Johan, Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Graduate School of Business. |
| Publisher | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| Source Sets | South African National ETD Portal |
| Language | en_ZA |
| Detected Language | Unknown |
| Type | Thesis |
| Rights | Stellenbosch University |
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