Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2003. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study is focussed on the all-important issue of estimation and
forecasting in project management. Most project managers relate the kind
of difficulties they have to go through in dealing with superiors that come
up with a targeted deadline for a project with a given budget but with little
or no regard to due process of arriving at both duration and cost. Many
projects are doomed to overrun both schedule and cost from the word go
because either the project manager is not equipped to give accurate
estimates or is too timid to upset the boss by saying they do not believe
the project would be completed within the said duration and the given cost
without compromising quality.
It is well said in literature that the three pillars of any project completion are
time, cost and performance. Two of the three can be predetermined and
the third will normally be dependent on those two. Where there is
generous time and a large budget, chances are that a good quality well
considered and executed project will result. The opposite is also true.
This study investigates literature on the subject and also seeks to look at
the trends in estimating in practice, by way of questionnaire and physical
inspections. The questions that it seeks to answer are:
a) Are project managers in most companies formally qualified?
b) What is their disposition to using computerised/statistical methods
in estimating?
c) Does the level of education affect the disposition of project
managers to using computerised/statistical methods of estimation?
And finally,
d) What methods are project managers using to estimate duration,
cost and schedule?
The results of this survey show that most projects managers do not have
formal training in project management. At best they have attended short
courses in project management. The survey also shows that even the
formally educated project managers do not think much of strictly scientific
(computerised/statistical) methods of project estimation. They rather feel
that getting input from experienced functional people on the separate parts of the project tends to produce more accurate estimates. There is a
leaning therefore towards using past experience on similar projects to
generate norms and expert advice from the relevant functions on the
expected costs and durations of accomplishing the parts of the project on
which they have experience.
All the project managers that responded to the survey said they had formal
documentation for their projects and that they kept copies of the
documentation in a central place that was easily accessible. Physical
checks of this fact revealed that 29% of the interviewees did not have
central or well-kept databases of previous projects' information. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die studie plaas klem op die belangrike kwessie van skatting en
voorspelling in projekbestuur. Die meeste projekbestuurders ondervind die
tipiese probleem waar senior persone projekteikendatums en -begrotings
neerlê, sonder behoorlike oorweging van die faktore wat tyd en koste
beïnvloed. Baie projekte is dus, van die staanspoor, bestem om beide
koste en tyd te oorskry. Die projekbestuurder is dalk nie behoorlik
toegerus om akkurate skattings te maak nie, of andersinds ontbreek die
moed om die senior persoon daarop te wys dat tydskaal- en koste-teikens
slegs teen 'n verlaging in kwaliteitstandaarde bereik kan word.
Die literatuur gee wye erkenning aan wat die die drie pilare van
projekvoltooing is: tyd, koste, en prestasie. Twee hiervan kan vooraf
vasgepen word, terwyl die oorblywende een dan 'n funksie van die ander
twee word. Indien daar ruim tyd en fondse beskikbaar is, is daar 'n beter
kans om goeie kwaliteit en 'n gunstige projekuitkoms te verseker. Die
teenoorgestelde is ook waar.
Hierdie studie ondersoek die literatuur in die vakgebied, en gee bepaalde
aandag aan die tendense in vooruitskattingspraktyke deur van 'n vraeboog
en fisiese ondersoeke gebruik te maak. Die vrae wat deur hierdie
navorsing gestel word, is die volgende:
a) Is projekbestuurders, in die meeste organisasies, formeelopgelei?
b) Wat is hulle houding teenoor die gebruik van rekenaargebaseerde
statistiese metodes vir vooruitskatting?
c) Beïnvloed die vlak van opleiding hierdie houding teenoor die gebruik
rekenaargebaseerde statistiese metodes?
d) Watter metodes gebruik projekbestuurders om kostes, tyd, en skedules
te bepaal?
Die ondersoek bevind dat die meerderheid projekbestuurders nie formele
opleiding in projekbestuur het nie. Ten beste het hulle slegs kort kursusse
in projekbestuur bygewoon. Die studie bevind ook verder dat selfs formeel
opgeleide projekbestuurders nie ten gunste van streng wetenskaplike (rekenaargebaseerde statistiese) skattingstegnieke is nie. Hulle voel dat
die insette van ervare funksionele personeel wat op verskillende elemente
van die projek werk, meer akkuraat is. Daar is dus 'n neiging om eerder
vorige ondervinding op soortgelyke projekte te gebruik om norme vas te
stel, en om kundige spesialiste se raad te gebruik by die skatting van
koste en tydsduur met betrekking tot die gedeeltes van die projek waarin
hulle spesialiseer.
AI die projekbestuurders wat aan die vraeboog-opname deelgeneem het,
het bevestig dat hulle formele dokumentasie rakende hulle projekte byhou,
en dat kopieë op In toeganklike plek sentraal beskikbaar gehou word. Die
fisiese ondersoek bevind dat 29% van die persone waarmee onderhoude
gevoer is, nie projekrekords van vorige projekte op In sentrale databasis
bewaar nie.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:sun/oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/53415 |
| Date | 12 1900 |
| Creators | Njovu, Peter |
| Contributors | Brown, C. J., Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic & Management Sciences. Graduate School of Business. |
| Publisher | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| Source Sets | South African National ETD Portal |
| Language | en_ZA |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis |
| Format | 79 p. |
| Rights | Stellenbosch University |
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