South Africa relies heavily on fossil fuels, particularly coal, to generate electricity and it is a well known fact that the use of fossil fuels contributes to climate change, as it produces greenhouse gases (GHGs). In fact, internationally South Africa is the 17th highest emitter of GHGs (Congressional Research Service (CRS), 2008). Coupled with the environmental consequences of fossil fuel use, South Africa has a further responsibility of addressing the inherited backlog of electricity provision to the rural, and previously disadvantaged communities. In an attempt to address these two problems, the government issued the White Paper on Renewable Energy. In this paper, renewable energy alternatives are proposed to replace a portion of traditional electricity generating methods. Concentrator photovoltaic (CPV) energy generation is one such renewable option available to government. CPV uses optic elements (such as lenses) to concentrate sunlight onto solar cells. Owing to the light being concentrated, the cells in CPV use less semiconductor material, which makes them more efficient in comparison to conventional photovoltaic (PV) cells. CPV is a technology that operates well in regions with high solar radiation. As such, South Africa is particularly well suited for this technology, with average solar radiation levels ranging from 4.5 to 6.5 05 ℎ/. CPV is also well suited for off-grid application, which addresses electricity demand in remote rural areas. This study is an economic project analysis of the installation, operation, maintenance, and decommissioning of CPV technology in a rural area in the Eastern Cape, South Africa. The study area chosen for this purpose is the Tyefu settlement in the Eastern Cape. Tyefu was deemed ideal for this type of analysis due to four characteristics. Firstly, Tyefu is a remote rural settlement at the end of the national grid. Secondly, the community is very poor and previously disadvantaged. Thirdly, many households are without Eskom generated electricity. Lastly, the study area is located in an area with ideal irradiance levels for CPV. Two methods of economic project analysis are applied to this case study, namely a costbenefit analysis (CBA) and a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). Additionally, two types of CBA are performed, namely a private CBA and a social CBA. The private CBA evaluates the Tyefu electrification project from a private investor's perspective and the social CBA evaluates the project from society's point of view. The CEAs carried out compare the costeffectiveness of the traditional PV technology to that of CPV in terms of private and social costs. The private costs and benefits of the CPV project were identified and valued in terms of market prices. Then, this cost benefit profile was used to calculate net benefits which in turn were discounted to present values using a private discount rate of 6.42 percent. Three decision making criteria were generated, namely the net present value (NPV), the internal rate of return (IRR) and the benefit cost ratio (BCR). Sensitivity analysis was carried out by varying the private discount rate and the bidding price. The social costs and benefits of the CPV project were identified and valued in terms of shadow prices. This cost benefit profile was used to calculate net benefits. The net benefits were discounted to present values using a composite social discount rate equal to 5.97 percent. The same decision making criteria used in the private CBA were used in the social CBA and a sensitivity analysis was completed by varying the social discount rate. In terms of the private CEA, the costs were identified and valued in terms of market prices. All costs were brought to present values using the private discount rate of 6.42 percent. In terms of the social CEA, the costs were identified and valued in terms of shadow prices. All costs were brought to present values using the social discount rate of 5.97 percent. The cost-effectiveness (CE) ratios calculated have identical denominators since the annual output for both technologies are identical - both CPV and PV systems deliver 30 300 kWh per annum. This output is based on the demand of the given case study. The private CBA showed unfavourable results. The private CBA has a NPV of R2 046 629.01, the IRR is undefined (this is due to no sign change being present in the cost benefit profile), and has a BCR of 0.365. However, the social CBA yielded positive results, with a NPV of R125 616.64, an IRR of 8 percent (which exceeds the social discount rate of 5.97 percent), and a BCR of 1.045. The CEA showed that the CPV is more cost-effective than the traditional PV both in terms of private and social costs. The private CE ratio of CPV is R4.23/kWh compared to PV's CE ratio of R4.39/kWh. Similarly, the social CE ratio of CPV is R3.51/kWh compared to PV's CE ratio of R3.69/kWh. CPV rollout appears to be socially efficient on a small scale according to the social CBA. Consequently, the CPV project is not seen as desirable in terms of the private CBA as the benefit (income received per kWh) in the private analysis is too small to outweigh the costs of implementing and running a CPV plant in Tyefu. On the other hand, a redeeming factor is that CPV may be feasible privately, for large scale applications. A major reason for the CPV project not being appealing to private investors is that the maximum bidding price of R2.85/kWh (as at August 2011) is not high enough for private investors to undertake the CPV project. The sensitivity analysis of the bidding price showed that the bidding price of R2.85/kWh needs to be increased in the range of 250 percent (R7.13/kWh) and 300 percent (R8.55/kWh) for a great enough incentive to exist for private investors. It is thus recommended that policymakers take this into consideration when formulating policy. In terms of the social CBA, it is recommended that government undertake CPV projects of this kind, as it will be a socially desirable allocation of resources. If government were to pursue these types of projects, it is recommended that CPV be implemented as it is more cost effective than PV.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:nmmu/vital:9017 |
| Date | January 2013 |
| Creators | Beukes, Justin |
| Publisher | Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences |
| Source Sets | South African National ETD Portal |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis, Masters, MCom |
| Format | xiv, 128 leaves, pdf |
| Rights | Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University |
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