Thesis (Ph.D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, 1982. / MICROFICHE COPY AVAILABLE IN ARCHIVES AND DEWEY. / Bibliography: leaves 371-388. / by John David Sterman. / Ph.D.

South Africa relies heavily on fossil fuels, particularly coal, to generate electricity and it is a well known fact that the use of fossil fuels contributes to climate change, as it produces greenhouse gases (GHGs). In fact, internationally South Africa is the 17th highest emitter of GHGs (Congressional Research Service (CRS), 2008). Coupled with the environmental consequences of fossil fuel use, South Africa has a further responsibility of addressing the inherited backlog of electricity provision to the rural, and previously disadvantaged communities. In an attempt to address these two problems, the government issued the White Paper on Renewable Energy. In this paper, renewable energy alternatives are proposed to replace a portion of traditional electricity generating methods. Concentrator photovoltaic (CPV) energy generation is one such renewable option available to government. CPV uses optic elements (such as lenses) to concentrate sunlight onto solar cells. Owing to the light being concentrated, the cells in CPV use less semiconductor material, which makes them more efficient in comparison to conventional photovoltaic (PV) cells. CPV is a technology that operates well in regions with high solar radiation. As such, South Africa is particularly well suited for this technology, with average solar radiation levels ranging from 4.5 to 6.5 05 ℎ/. CPV is also well suited for off-grid application, which addresses electricity demand in remote rural areas. This study is an economic project analysis of the installation, operation, maintenance, and decommissioning of CPV technology in a rural area in the Eastern Cape, South Africa. The study area chosen for this purpose is the Tyefu settlement in the Eastern Cape. Tyefu was deemed ideal for this type of analysis due to four characteristics. Firstly, Tyefu is a remote rural settlement at the end of the national grid. Secondly, the community is very poor and previously disadvantaged. Thirdly, many households are without Eskom generated electricity. Lastly, the study area is located in an area with ideal irradiance levels for CPV. Two methods of economic project analysis are applied to this case study, namely a costbenefit analysis (CBA) and a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). Additionally, two types of CBA are performed, namely a private CBA and a social CBA. The private CBA evaluates the Tyefu electrification project from a private investor's perspective and the social CBA evaluates the project from society's point of view. The CEAs carried out compare the costeffectiveness of the traditional PV technology to that of CPV in terms of private and social costs. The private costs and benefits of the CPV project were identified and valued in terms of market prices. Then, this cost benefit profile was used to calculate net benefits which in turn were discounted to present values using a private discount rate of 6.42 percent. Three decision making criteria were generated, namely the net present value (NPV), the internal rate of return (IRR) and the benefit cost ratio (BCR). Sensitivity analysis was carried out by varying the private discount rate and the bidding price. The social costs and benefits of the CPV project were identified and valued in terms of shadow prices. This cost benefit profile was used to calculate net benefits. The net benefits were discounted to present values using a composite social discount rate equal to 5.97 percent. The same decision making criteria used in the private CBA were used in the social CBA and a sensitivity analysis was completed by varying the social discount rate. In terms of the private CEA, the costs were identified and valued in terms of market prices. All costs were brought to present values using the private discount rate of 6.42 percent. In terms of the social CEA, the costs were identified and valued in terms of shadow prices. All costs were brought to present values using the social discount rate of 5.97 percent. The cost-effectiveness (CE) ratios calculated have identical denominators since the annual output for both technologies are identical - both CPV and PV systems deliver 30 300 kWh per annum. This output is based on the demand of the given case study. The private CBA showed unfavourable results. The private CBA has a NPV of R2 046 629.01, the IRR is undefined (this is due to no sign change being present in the cost benefit profile), and has a BCR of 0.365. However, the social CBA yielded positive results, with a NPV of R125 616.64, an IRR of 8 percent (which exceeds the social discount rate of 5.97 percent), and a BCR of 1.045. The CEA showed that the CPV is more cost-effective than the traditional PV both in terms of private and social costs. The private CE ratio of CPV is R4.23/kWh compared to PV's CE ratio of R4.39/kWh. Similarly, the social CE ratio of CPV is R3.51/kWh compared to PV's CE ratio of R3.69/kWh. CPV rollout appears to be socially efficient on a small scale according to the social CBA. Consequently, the CPV project is not seen as desirable in terms of the private CBA as the benefit (income received per kWh) in the private analysis is too small to outweigh the costs of implementing and running a CPV plant in Tyefu. On the other hand, a redeeming factor is that CPV may be feasible privately, for large scale applications. A major reason for the CPV project not being appealing to private investors is that the maximum bidding price of R2.85/kWh (as at August 2011) is not high enough for private investors to undertake the CPV project. The sensitivity analysis of the bidding price showed that the bidding price of R2.85/kWh needs to be increased in the range of 250 percent (R7.13/kWh) and 300 percent (R8.55/kWh) for a great enough incentive to exist for private investors. It is thus recommended that policymakers take this into consideration when formulating policy. In terms of the social CBA, it is recommended that government undertake CPV projects of this kind, as it will be a socially desirable allocation of resources. If government were to pursue these types of projects, it is recommended that CPV be implemented as it is more cost effective than PV.

M.A. (Environmental Management) / The Small Micro Medium Enterprise (SMME) sector plays a critical role in the economy of South Africa by reducing poverty and providing employment. South Africa has about 6 million SMMEs that employ more than 61% of citizens and contribute about 37% to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The growth and development of the sector over the years has however been compromised and threatened by the shortage of electricity and increasing electricity tariffs. Whereas large companies can manage to afford the adoption of energy efficiency measures in order to reduce energy costs, SMMEs have limited resources and may therefore struggle to afford energy efficiency adoption. However, there is a lack of scientific documentation about energy efficiency adoption amongst manufacturing SMMEs (M-SMMEs) in South Africa. The purpose of the research is to therefore assess the state of energy efficiency adoption amongst M-SMMEs, despite the challenges they experience. To achieve this research goal, the study surveyed and characterised the extent of energy efficiency adoption and also unveiled the drivers and barriers to energy efficiency adoption. Data were collected by means of surveys, making use of questionnaires. A sample of 30 firms was selected for the research. Almost all (96%) firms perceived EE as an opportunity. However, only 50% had adopted EE measures. Key drivers to adoption included the motive to reduce production costs, mitigate the impact of increasing electricity prices, gain competitive advantage and payback period. The gap between EE perception and adoption was caused by several barriers like the lack of finance, skills and time. Among non-adopters, 60% indicated their willingness to be trained in EE. The study therefore recommends improved capacity building through workshops for M-SMMEs.

Includes bibliographical references (p. 165-188)

This study examined the relationship between economic structure and energy intensity in selected developed and developing countries of the world. A methodological and systematic approach was adopted to select the thirty-one countries explored in the study. Therefore, to answer the research questions posed in the study, the Granger Causality Technique and the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) method were used. This study discovered that the variables examined in the study showed variations. The variations emerged because of differences in methodologies and analytical frameworks adopted. Errorcorrection models were estimated and used to test for the direction of Granger causality. In the model, a high R2 was observed among the six variables (i.e. energy efficiency, per capita income, manufacturing, average energy prices, energy imports, technological developments), which invariably account for 60.8 percent of the variance in the energy intensity. Based on this, the unidirectional Granger causality runs from efficiency, per capita income and manufacturing to energy intensity. Hence, the price effects are relatively less significant in the causal chain. The result is at variance with the hypothesis that the structure of the economy does not determine its energy intensity. Nevertheless, a unidirectional Granger causality running from economic structure to energy intensity indicates that improvement in the economic structure would encourage a decline in energy intensity.

Historically, the most frequently used energy sources have been those nearest and easiest to consume. Unfortunately, society’s reliance on fossil fuel for power generation has occurred at the expense of the environment, coal being a major contribution to carbon dioxide (CO2) emission. Carbon dioxide is classified as a greenhouse gas (GHG); it contributes to the phenomenon of climate change (Haw & Hughes, 2007, p.1). According to Worrell (2011), industry uses nearly 40 percent of worldwide energy on economic activities. Value chain activities alone contribute almost 37 percent to global GHG. Organisations are socially and ethically required to minimise the carbon footprint of their operations. Reducing energy use makes perfect business sense; it saves money, enhances corporate reputations and helps everyone participate the fight against climate change (Carbon Trust, 2011). Gielen, Newman, and Patel (2008) strongly believe the overall energy and emissions trends can be mitigated through additional energy efficiency measures. However, implementing EnMS will enable organisations to establish systematic approaches and the processes necessary to improve energy performance, including energy efficiency, use and consumption (SANS 50001, 2011). The objective of this paper was to evaluate the current energy management strategy adopted by selected automotive manufacture in Eastern Cape. The research was motivated by the fact that previous researchers have focused more on technological aspects and less of management functions. The research paradigm followed in this paper was qualitative because a case study is used to gain an insight and understanding about more and less successful energy management strategies. In this report, background about the global energy outlook and its significant to economic development, factors behind energy demands, the link to climate change and providing effective energy management principles are covered. The energy management principles covered key elements for delivering successful energy management. Literature highlighted that, senior management commitment is the foundation of good energy management, which is delivered through a formal energy policy and a supporting energy strategy with action plan. High level commitment will provide: Advocacy from senior managers; Visibility of the issues across your organization; Impetus for the organisation to implement energy management; Resources, both human and financial. It will also demonstrate that good energy management is part of your organisation’s mission and as relevant as other management aspects. The empirical study is focused on the characteristics of the current management system and organisational structure employed with its relevant functions. Based on these reference points the paper concludes with recommendations for the case study organisation.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2005. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: South Africa's main requirements for power are in the form of electricity and liquid fuels The country's electricity is generated mainly from coal while the liquid fuels requirement is mainly from crude oil. Both coal and crude oil use are coming under increasing pressure locally because of pollution and accompanying environmental awareness. Internationally both energy sources are also increasingly being abandoned as preferred energy sources, in first world countries, in favour of cleaner energy sources.ln view of these developments in the macro environment South Africa's gas to liquids refinery built in the early 1990's seems a well placed past investment ahead of its time. This study project looks at the economic feasibility of the continued existence of the PetroSA gas to liquid plant in Mossel Bay.The study looks at South Africa as well as Southern Africa's energy resources , the effect of changing legislation on the future use of energy resources and the economics of the Mossel Bay facility. The study finds that South Africa's abundance of coal reserves, its lack of oil and gas reserves and the slow pace of environmental legislation delivery means that gas is unlikely to become a major source of energy in South Africa.The Mossel Bay gas to liquids plant is profitable but its high fixed costs and certain growth of this cost component means that the continued feasibility of operations is dependant on favourable movements in the exchange rate and oil price. To answer the question about whether to continue operating or close down the analysis found that although although early closure would provide a return of more than 15 percent it would be even more viable financially to make an investment for more gas and continue operations.The main reason for the better than average projected returns is the high oil price .The decision to close down the Mossel Bay plant is not likely to be based on financial considerations alone. The recommendation is thus to continue operations untill 2016.The investment required to secure more gas would , even in the worst case scenario, provide a satisfactory return on investment. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Suid Afrika se energie behoeftes is hoofsaaklik vir elektrisiteit en brandstof. Die meerderheid van die land se elektristeit word deur middel van steenkool opgewek terwyl ru-olie gebruik word om brandstof te vervaardig. Beide steenkool en ru-olie word al hoe meer onder druk geplaas as gevolg van besoedeling en 'n meer omgewing bewuste publiek. Op internasionale vlak , in eerste wereld lande word die gebruik van steenkool en ru-olie al hoe meer afgeskaf ten gunsle van skoner kragbronne. In die lig van hierdie verwikkeling in die makro omgewing mag dit op die oog af Iyk of PetroSA se gas na vloeistof aanleg in Mosselbaai, wat reeds in die vroee 1990's gebou is, as 'n goeie destydse strategiese belegging voorkom. Hierdie studie projek ondersoek die ekonomiese lewensvatbaarheid van die voorgesette bestaan van die PetroSA se Mosselbaai gas na vloeislof aanleg. Die studie kyk na Suid-Afrika sowel as die groter Suider Afrika se natuurlike energiebronne, die invloed van verandering in wetgewing op die toekomstige gebruik van energiebronne en die ekonomiese kenmerke van die aanleg in Mosselbaai. Die bevinding van die studie is dat Suid-Afrika se oorvloed van steenkool, sy tekort aan natuurlike gas en die stadige pas waarteen omgewings-wetgewing ontwikkel word, daartoe lei dat gas nie 'n volmatige energiebron in Suid Afrika sal word nie. Die aanleg in Mosselbaai is huidiglik winsgewind maar sy hoe vastekoste en groei hiervan belemmer sy vooruitsigte vanuit 'n finansiele oogpunt. Die winsgewindheid van die aanleg is afhanklik van 'n verswakkende Suid Afrikaanse geldeenheid en verhogende ru-olie pryse. Die vraag onstaan dus of die aanleg moet toemaak en of produksie moet voortgaan. Die ondersoek vind dat alhoewel die sluiting van die aanleg 'n opbrengs van meer as 15 persent sal lewer dit selfs meer finansieel aantreklik is on te belê in meer gas sodat produksie kan voortgaan. Die hoofrede vir die bogemiddelde opbrengs is die hoe oilieprys. Dit is onwaarskynlik dat die oorweging om die Mosselbaaise aanleg sluit suiwer op finansieele oorwegings sal rus. Die aanbeveling is dus om voort te gaan met produksie tot 2016. Die belegging wat nodig is vir meer gas sal selfs onder die mees pessimistiese omstandighede steeds 'n bevredigende opbrengs lewer.