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Previous issue date: 2015-03-06 / Coordena??o de Aperfei?oamento de Pessoal de N?vel Superior - CAPES / O clima e a polui??o do ar, dentre outros, s?o fatores respons?veis pelo aumento da
vulnerabilidade da sa?de das popula??es residentes nos grandes centros urbanos.
Altera??es clim?ticas combinadas a altas concentra??es de poluentes atmosf?ricos est?o
associadas a doen?as respirat?rias e cardiovasculares. Neste sentido, o objetivo principal
da pesquisa ? modelar de diferentes formas a rela??o clima e sa?de, especificamente
para a popula??o de crian?as e idosos residentes em S?o Paulo. Para tanto, foram
utilizados dados de vari?veis meteorol?gicas, poluentes atmosf?ricos, interna??es e
?bitos por doen?as respirat?rias e cardiovasculares no per?odo de 11 anos (2000 a
2010). Por interm?dio de Modelos via equa??es de estima??o generalizadas, estimou-se
o risco relativo. Com a regress?o din?mica, foi poss?vel prever o n?mero de ?bitos por
meio das vari?veis atmosf?ricas e por meio do modelo beta-binomial-poisson estimouse
o n?mero de ?bitos e foi poss?vel projetar cen?rios. Os resultados mostraram que o
risco das interna??es por asma aumenta aproximadamente duas vezes para crian?as
expostas ?s altas concentra??es do material particulado do que crian?as que n?o s?o
expostas. O risco de morte por infarto agudo do mioc?rdio de idosos aumenta em 3%,
6%, 4% e 9% devido ?s concentra??es de CO, SO2, O3 e PM10, respectivamente. Com
rela??o ? modelagem via regress?o din?mica, os resultados mostraram que os ?bitos por
doen?as respirat?rias podem ser previstos de forma consistente. O modelo betabinomial-poisson
conseguiu retratar o n?mero m?dio de ?bitos por insufici?ncia
card?aca. Na regi?o de Santo Amaro o n?mero observado foi de 2,462 e o simulado de
2,508 na regi?o da S?, o observado foi de 4,308 e o simulado de 4,426 o que
possibilitou a gera??o de cen?rios que possam servir como par?metro para a an?lise
destinada ? tomada de decis?o. A partir dos resultados obtidos, ? poss?vel contribuir
com metodologias que possam auxiliar a compreens?o da rela??o clima e sa?de
fornecendo subs?dios aos gestores no planejamento de pol?ticas de sa?de p?blica e
ambiental. / Climate and air pollution, among others, are responsible factors for increase of health
vulnerability of the populations that live in urban centers. Climate changes combined
with high concentrations of atmospheric pollutants are usually associated with
respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. In this sense, the main objective of this research
is to model in different ways the climate and health relation, specifically for the children
and elderly population which live in S?o Paulo. Therefore, data of meteorological
variables, air pollutants, hospitalizations and deaths from respiratory and cardiovascular
diseases a in 11-year period (2000-2010) were used. By using modeling via generalized
estimating equations, the relative risk was obtained. By dynamic regression, it was
possible to predict the number of deaths through the atmospheric variables and the betabinomial-poisson
model was able to estimate the number of deaths and simulate
scenarios. The results showed that the risk of hospitalizations due to asthma increases
approximately twice for children exposed to high concentrations of particulate matter
than children who are not exposed. The risk of death by acute myocardial infarction in
elderly increase in 3%, 6%, 4% and 9% due to high concentrations CO, SO2, O3 and
PM10, respectively. Regarding the dynamic regression modeling, the results showed that
deaths by respiratory diseases can be predicted consistently. The beta-binomial-poisson
model was able to reproduce an average number of deaths by heart insufficiency. In the
region of Santo Amaro the observed number was 2.462 and the simulated was 2.508, in
the S? region 4.308 were observed and 4.426 simulated, which allowed for the
generation of scenarios that may be used as a parameter for decision. Making with these
results, it is possible to contribute for methodologies that can improve the understanding
of the relation between climate and health and proved support to managers in
environmental planning and public health policies.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:IBICT/oai:repositorio.ufrn.br:123456789/20111 |
| Date | 06 March 2015 |
| Creators | Gomes, Ana Carla dos Santos |
| Contributors | 79203183434, http://lattes.cnpq.br/5023632543506327, Silva, Cl?udio Mois?s Santos e, 66961513204, http://lattes.cnpq.br/1394248306018449, Hoelzemann, Judith Johanna, 23182367803, http://lattes.cnpq.br/6590472437235971, Gioda, Adriana, 53698142015, http://lattes.cnpq.br/3948737758921845, Lara, Idemauro Antonio Rodrigues de, 12360382829, http://lattes.cnpq.br/2458007865506934, L?cio, Paulo S?rgio, Spyrides, Maria Helena Constantino |
| Publisher | Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, PROGRAMA DE P?S-GRADUA??O EM CI?NCIAS CLIM?TICAS, UFRN, Brasil |
| Source Sets | IBICT Brazilian ETDs |
| Language | Portuguese |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion, info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis |
| Source | reponame:Repositório Institucional da UFRN, instname:Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, instacron:UFRN |
| Rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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