IPCC於第四次報告書中，模擬氣候持續暖化預測未來海平面上升之情形，而海平面上升對於人口集中的台北都會區將產生莫大之衝擊，同時亦會造成土地利用變遷。本研究目的在於探討海平面上升對台北都會區土地利用變遷之影響，以及受淹沒地區之人口未來可能之遷移區位，主要係從社會經濟發展層面進行分析。運用二元羅吉斯迴歸模式並結合土地利用轉換與影響模型（CLUE-s），以四種不同情境模擬土地利用變遷之情況，其情境分別為海平面上升59公分管制農林地與不管制，以及海平面上升100公分管制農林地與不管制。
研究結果顯示，海平面上升之情形越嚴重，未來的都市建地發展會越趨向擴張的形式，對農林地產生變遷之壓力；而於同一海平面上升水平下，針對農林地進行管制，其建地之發展會較為集中於都市計畫地區範圍內，且多數人口亦將遷移至此，容易形成人口壓力。此外，土地利用變遷模擬所得之新增建地部分，於情境A、C下足以容納受影響之人口，但情境B、D則不足以容納，皆會對台北都會區產生容受力之問題，產生累計人口超過計畫人口之現象。因此，建議未來政府於都市發展上，可調整都市計畫內之土地使用強度或都市範圍，也可利用都市更新之方式減少新的土地開發；此外，從國家層級分析，未來的國土計畫法於立法上，亦可將更多氣候變遷相關影響因子納入四大功能分區，透過適宜性分析進行分類分級，以做為未來土地利用發展之引導。 / The 4th IPCC report simulated climate warming and predicted future sea-level rise scenarios. A sea level rise will have a great impact on the population of the Taipei metropolitan area, and it will also produce land-use changes. The purpose of this study is to research the impact of sea level change on land use changes and population migration in Taipei metropolitan, and the areas that will be immigrated by the flooded areas. The method used includes binary logistic regression model combined with Conversion of Land Use and its Effects Model (CLUE-s). Setting the sea-level rise and regulating agricultural land, forest land of the four simulated situations.
The results show that the higher sea level rises, the more transformation towards urban development in the future, and the higher sea level will also pressure agriculture and forestry changes. As a result of population pressure on Taipei metropolitan area, the same level of sea-level rise for the regulation of agriculture and forestry land, the development of building sites and population migration will be more concentrated on urban planning areas. In addition, the simulation of land use change generated new building sites, sufficient enough to accommodate the affected population under A and C simulated situations, but B and D couldn’t generate such results. Instead, it will generate a carrying capacity issue.
Therefore, this thesis suggests that the government adjust the intensity of land use in urban development, urban areas and urban renewal of urban planning. In addition, the analysis from the national level, the future legislation of Land Planning Act should include the relation of climate change impact factors as a consideration of future land use development.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0097257005 |
| Creators | 張伊芳, Chang, Yi Fang |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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