Thesis (MBA (Business Management))--Stellenbosch University, 2008. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This research studies the relationship between economic growth and commodity-market volatility in South Africa. The mining industry, largely supported by gold, diamonds, coal, iron ore and platinum-group metals, has played a central role in South Africa's economic development. The commodities that were selected for the study are the five major minerals, namely gold, coal, iron are, platinum-group metals and diamonds. It investigates two central questions, the first of which is whether the mining of the above commodities still makes a significant contribution to the South African economy in terms of employment, revenue and foreign-currency earning. The second is whether there is a link that reflects a statistically and economically significant association between commodity-price volatility and economic growth in South Africa. The economic environment in South Africa has been extremely positive, with a growth averaging around 5% for the period 2004-2006. An important contributing factor to this favourable environment has been the behaviour of mineral commodity prices. Mining makes a direct and indirect contribution of approximately 15% to GOP, accounts for around 50% of merchandise exports (including primary and beneficiated mineral exports), 12% of fixed investment, 30% of the market value of the JSE limited and 20% of formal-sector employment. Therefore, mining remains a key foundation of the South African economy. Time series data analysis confirms that the volatility of the major foreign currency-earning commodities - gold, platinum, coal, diamonds and iron ore - are negatively or weakly related. This relationship actually reflects the harmful effect of the volatility of these commodities on economic growth. Until recently, South Africa was heavily dependent on exports of primary commodities. Since the commodity prices are highly volatile, South Africa has to cope with large shocks, both positive and negative. Commodity cycles used to be determined by the growth cycle in the United States, but more recently, with the emergence of the Asian economies and China, in particular, the dominant influence of the United States economy on the commodity cycle has waned. The continuing instability in commodity prices and export earnings of South Africa has to be addressed by diversifying the exports towards more dynamic products; particularly manufactured goods and services. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die verwantskap tussen ekonomiese groei in Suid-Afrika en die mynbedryf, wat hoofsaaklik ondersteun word deur goud, diamante, steenkool, ystererts en die platinumgroepmetale, het 'n sentrale rol in Suid-Afrika se ekonomiese ontwikkeling gespeel. Die kommoditeite wat vir hierdie navorsing gebruik word, is die vyf belangrikste minerale, naamlik goud, steenkool, ystererts, die platinumgroepmetale en diamante. Twee sleutelvraagstukke word hier ondersoek, waarvan die eerste dit bevraagteken of die ontginning van bogenoemde kommoditeite nog steeds 'n belangrike bydrae tot die Suid-Afrikaanse ekonomie lewer wat indiensneming, inkomste en buitelandse valuta betref. Tweedens word daar ondersoek of daar enige skakel is wat 'n statistiese en ekonomies betekenisvolle verwantskap tussen kommoditeitsprysonbestendigheid en die ekonomiese groei van Suid-Afrika weerspieel. Die ekonomiese omgewing in Suid-Afrika was besonder positief, met 'n groeikoers van ongeveer 5% gedurende die 2004-2006-tydperk. Die gedrag van mineraalkommoditeitspryse het 'n belangrike bydrae tot die gunstige ekonomiese omgewing gelewer. Mynwese lewer 'n direkte en indirekte bydrae van ongeveer 15% tot die algemene binnelandse produk, is verantwoordelik vir ongeveer 50% van die uitvoer van handelsware (insluitend primere en veredelde mineraaluitvoere), 12% van vaste beleggings, 30% van die markwaarde van die Johannesburgse Aandelebeurs en 20% van die werksgeleenthede in die formele sektor. Daarom is mynwese 'n sentrale deel van die Suid-Afrikaanse ekonomie. Die ontleding van tydreeksdata bevestig dat die onbestendigheid van die belangrikste kommoditeite wat buitelandse valuta verdien, naamlik goud, platinum, steenkool, diamante en ystererts, negatief of swak verwant is. Hierdie verwantskap weerspieel eerder die skadelike uitwerking van hierdie kommoditeite se onbestendigheid op ekonomiese groei. Tot onlangs was Suid-Afrika grootliks afhanklik van die uitvoer van primere kommoditeite en die pryse van hierdie kommoditeite is baie onbestendig. Suid-Afrika moes dus groot skokke, positief sowel as negatief, die hoof bied. Die groeisiklus in Amerika het in die verlede die kommoditeitsiklusse bepaal, maar meer onlangs het die Asiatiese ekonomiee en veral China die dominante invloed van ekonomiese Amerika laat afneem. Die voortdurende onstabiliteit in kommoditeitspryse en buitelandse inkomste vir Suid-Afrika moet meer aandag geniet deur uitvoere te diversifiseer na meer dinamiese produkte, veral vervaardigde produkte en dienslewering.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:sun/oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/6170 |
| Date | 12 1900 |
| Creators | Mazibuko, Palasta |
| Contributors | Biekpe, Nicholas, Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Graduate School of Business. |
| Publisher | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| Source Sets | South African National ETD Portal |
| Language | en_ZA |
| Detected Language | Unknown |
| Type | Thesis |
| Rights | Stellenbosch University |
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