This dissertation consists of three stand-alone essays on fundamental uncertainty, stock return volatility and earnings management. The first study investigates the role of information about firms?? fundamentals contained in analysts?? forecasts (which I label ??non-accounting information??) in understanding stock return volatility. When combined with Ohlson??s (1995) linear information dynamics, the accounting version of the Campbell-Shiller model (Campbell and Shiller 1988a, 1988b; Vuolteenaho 2002) implies that if current non-accounting information is more uncertain, then future stock returns are expected to be more volatile. The empirical evidence supports the theoretical predictions, and the results are valid for measures of both systematic and idiosyncratic volatility. Additional analysis yields some evidence that both favourable and unfavourable news from non-accounting information increases future stock return volatility. Overall, the results highlight the value relevance of information in analysts?? forecasts beyond what is contained in the current financial statements. The second essay extends the theoretical framework of Callen and Segal (2004) and Vuolteenaho (2002) to investigate the association between the uncertainty of accrual information and stock return volatility. The empirical evidence supports the theoretical prediction that the extent of uncertainty in accounting accruals is increasing with the volatility of future stock returns, and the results are valid for measures of both systematic and idiosyncratic volatility. However, when accrual variability is decomposed into fundamental and unexpected portions, I find that the positive relationship between accrual variability and future stock return volatility is dominated by the fundamental component of accrual variability. The findings therefore suggest that the market places little weight on information conveyed by that component of accounting accruals that is most likely to reflect accounting choices, implementation decisions and managerial opportunism. The final essay argues that the presumed articulation among accruals, cash flows and revenues does not capture decisions on expected accruals when large external financing activities are present. The analysis provides evidence that managers?? ??normal?? operating decisions associated with net external financing activities are likely to lead to measurement errors in unexpected accruals that are part of expected accruals, and erroneous conclusions that significant earnings management exists when in fact there is none. This is especially pertinent in cases where the partitioning variable used to identify instances of earnings management is supposed to be uncorrelated with external financing, when in fact it is correlated. The results underscore the importance of additional specification tests being conducted to control for estimation biases in unexpected accruals associated with external financing. I suggest the use of matched-firm approach using industry and external financing matches in order that reliable and warranted inferences are made.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:ADTP/229921 |
| Date | January 2009 |
| Creators | Shan, Yaowen, Banking & Finance, Australian School of Business, UNSW |
| Publisher | Publisher:University of New South Wales. Banking & Finance |
| Source Sets | Australiasian Digital Theses Program |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Rights | http://unsworks.unsw.edu.au/copyright, http://unsworks.unsw.edu.au/copyright |
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