There has been a revolution in US oil production the last decade,mainly because of production of the unconventional tight oil, and itis therefore of great interest to be able to produce reliableforecasts on future supply.The aim of this study is to develop and explore a bottom-up well-bywellmodel for tight oil production. The model is based on theinherent physics and geology of the well, together with simplemicro-economic principles. The model is made to be modular, flexibleand well grounded in practicalities. It successfully manages toreplicate historical production profile of Eagle Ford Play both withand without economic parameters. This implies the suitability of abottom-up approach for this kind of task.The model also tries to look into the future. An exploratorysimulation result suggests that a large decrease and stagnation indrilling capacity gives a convergence in oil production to aconstant level. But, the decrease in drilling capacity does notcorrespond with the decrease in oil production. Also, a low level offuture oil price could give a hyperbolic decline in production ratewhich does not seem to level off within years.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:UPSALLA1/oai:DiVA.org:uu-320786 |
| Date | January 2017 |
| Creators | Hedbrant, Per |
| Publisher | Uppsala universitet, Institutionen för informationsteknologi |
| Source Sets | DiVA Archive at Upsalla University |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Student thesis, info:eu-repo/semantics/bachelorThesis, text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
| Relation | IT ; 16093 |
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