This dissertation examines how different forms of state capacity affect the decision of terror groups to end their campaign. Building a theoretical framework about the relationship between state capacity and terrorist group termination, I address the following research questions: How do terror groups respond to the changes in non-repressive forms of state's capacity, such as bureaucratic capacity, extractive capacity, and how do those responses of terror groups affect the chance of their demise? How do the changes in non-repressive forms of state capacity affect the likelihood of termination of particular types of terror groups, specifically ethnic terror groups? And finally, how do security forces representing repressive capacity of states affect the probability of a terrorist group end?
I argue that as the state fighting the terror group increases its capacity, that will generate an incentive for the terror group to respond to increasing state capacity to secure its survival and maintain its existence. As the terror group produces responses to increasing state capacity in terms of rebuilding its capacity to operate and keeping its popular support base intact, it will be less likely to end its terror campaign. This argument is particularly relevant for terror groups operating on behalf of a certain ethnic or religious group. I test this theory by doing a cross-national quantitative analysis as well as doing a qualitative analysis on the PKK's terror campaign in Turkey in the period of 1984-2013. I find that increasing extractive capacity and bureaucratic capacity of states encourages terror groups to engage in coercive and non-coercive actions to survive increasing state capacity, thereby reducing the chances of ending its terror campaign.
I also argue that security forces, who represent repressive capacity of states, also play a role on the decision of terror groups to end their campaigns. By focusing exclusively on militarized law enforcement forces, I contend that the presence of these forces might either enhance the chances of survival of terror groups or increases the risk of the demise of these groups. Whether having these forces increases or decreases the likelihood of terror group end is a function of the capacity of the state to control the actions and behaviors of security forces. By constructing a time series cross-sectional data set on militarized law enforcement forces, I test these arguments and find that having militarized law enforcement forces decreases the risk of terror group end, but as the state's bureaucratic capacity increases, having these forces increases the likelihood that the terror group will decide to end its campaign. These empirical findings have several theoretical implications for the extant literature on state capacity and terrorism, and they also have implications for policymakers in terms of designing an effective counter-terrorism policy to deal with the threats from terrorist groups.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:unt.edu/info:ark/67531/metadc1609106 |
| Date | 12 1900 |
| Creators | Kirisci, Mustafa |
| Contributors | Mason, David, Greig, Michael, Enterline, Andrew, Hensel, Paul |
| Publisher | University of North Texas |
| Source Sets | University of North Texas |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis or Dissertation |
| Format | viii, 152 pages, Text |
| Rights | Public, Kirisci, Mustafa, Copyright, Copyright is held by the author, unless otherwise noted. All rights Reserved. |
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