This dissertation investigates the effect of state capacity on the probability for democratic transition and the survival of democracies. I seek to answer these quesitons through the use of both quantitative and qualitative analysis. In my statistical models, I make use of Cox Proportional Hazard Models. These are supplemented by two case studies involving South Korea and the Philippines. My expectation, which is supported by the results presented in this study, is that higher levels of state capacity will make authoritarian regimes more stable and thus make democratic transitions less likely, but if democratic transitions take place, higher levels of state capacity will make new democratic regimes more likely to survive.

Since the Vietnamese Communist Party passed the resolution to implement the ¡§Doi Moi¡¨ policy in the sixth National Congress in December 1986, Vietnam¡¦s economy has transformed from state-controlled economic system to market and socialism-oriented economy. This change of economic system has contributed to the recent economic improvement in Vietnam, a key point of studying Vietnam¡¦s political development. On the perspective of political economy, modernization theory contends that economic development helps political democratization, whereas stably hegemony theory argues that economic achievement may bring about stability for authoritarian regimes. Based on state theory, this paper takes two dimensions, i.e. state autonomy and state capacity, to examine the issue whether the Vietnamese state will be influenced after Vietnam¡¦s political and economic reforms. This paper concludes that modernization theory is not able to explain the current political economy of Vietnam, because Vietnam did not change from a strong state to a weak state. Rather, Vietnam maintains a strong state, which fits the explanation of state theory.

This PhD thesis looks at one of the most crucial determinants of state formation, quality of institutions, and social equality: institutionalised grand corruption. Institutionalised grand corruption denotes the particularistic allocation of public resources, that is violating prior explicit rules in order to benefit a closed network while denying access to all others. Emphasizing access to power and public resources deviates from traditional definitions of corruption resting on individual wrongdoing and abuse of power. The thesis makes use of large amounts of administrative data describing public procurement tenders on transaction level and links it to data on company ownership, financial accounts, and political office of company owners. By using data mining techniques it breaks away from standard, and arguably deficient, measures of quality of institutions and corruption. It proposes a complex ‘blueprint’ for measuring institutionalized grand corruption in the allocation of public resources and applies its key elements to three Central and Eastern European countries: Czech Republic, Hungary, and Slovakia. It is emphasized that these cases are only ‘pilot’ measurements, the blueprint is applicable to practically every high and middle income country, data is typically going back in time for 6-8 years. Using such a novel indicator set allows for an unprecedented detail of analysis. Results highlight the role played by European Union Structural and Cohesion Funds in increasing the prevalence of institutionalised grand corruption. This is due to at least two factors, first, they provide additional public resources available for corrupt rent extraction; second, they change the motivations for and controls of corruption. In Czech Republic, Hungary, and Slovakia, the first effect increases the value of particularistic resource allocation by up to 1.21% of GDP, while the second effect decreases it by up to 0.03% of GDP. The latter effect is entirely driven by Slovakia; in Czech Republic and Hungary even this effect increases particularism.

This dissertation examines how different forms of state capacity affect the decision of terror groups to end their campaign. Building a theoretical framework about the relationship between state capacity and terrorist group termination, I address the following research questions: How do terror groups respond to the changes in non-repressive forms of state's capacity, such as bureaucratic capacity, extractive capacity, and how do those responses of terror groups affect the chance of their demise? How do the changes in non-repressive forms of state capacity affect the likelihood of termination of particular types of terror groups, specifically ethnic terror groups? And finally, how do security forces representing repressive capacity of states affect the probability of a terrorist group end? I argue that as the state fighting the terror group increases its capacity, that will generate an incentive for the terror group to respond to increasing state capacity to secure its survival and maintain its existence. As the terror group produces responses to increasing state capacity in terms of rebuilding its capacity to operate and keeping its popular support base intact, it will be less likely to end its terror campaign. This argument is particularly relevant for terror groups operating on behalf of a certain ethnic or religious group. I test this theory by doing a cross-national quantitative analysis as well as doing a qualitative analysis on the PKK's terror campaign in Turkey in the period of 1984-2013. I find that increasing extractive capacity and bureaucratic capacity of states encourages terror groups to engage in coercive and non-coercive actions to survive increasing state capacity, thereby reducing the chances of ending its terror campaign. I also argue that security forces, who represent repressive capacity of states, also play a role on the decision of terror groups to end their campaigns. By focusing exclusively on militarized law enforcement forces, I contend that the presence of these forces might either enhance the chances of survival of terror groups or increases the risk of the demise of these groups. Whether having these forces increases or decreases the likelihood of terror group end is a function of the capacity of the state to control the actions and behaviors of security forces. By constructing a time series cross-sectional data set on militarized law enforcement forces, I test these arguments and find that having militarized law enforcement forces decreases the risk of terror group end, but as the state's bureaucratic capacity increases, having these forces increases the likelihood that the terror group will decide to end its campaign. These empirical findings have several theoretical implications for the extant literature on state capacity and terrorism, and they also have implications for policymakers in terms of designing an effective counter-terrorism policy to deal with the threats from terrorist groups.

In this thesis, I use the concept of state capacity to account for cross-national levels of variation in policy effectiveness in Latin America between 1996 and 2006. In doing so, I make four contributions to the literature. Firstly, I develop a theoretically-grounded conceptualization and an empirically systematic measurement of policy effectiveness for 18 Latin American countries along security, welfare and economic policy dimensions. Secondly, I develop a novel conceptualization and operationalization of state capacity along three key dimensions – infrastructural power, bureaucratic capacity and political capacity. By disaggregating state capacity into these three distinct (but mutually reinforcing) constituent dimensions, I integrate different strands of the literature on state capacity and purport to increase the explanatory power of state capacity as a conceptual variable. Thirdly, I develop a simple but theoretically differentiated model of policy effectiveness which maps out and incorporates different kinds of politics-centred explanations of effectiveness, while situating state capacity as a direct (but not exclusive) cause of effectiveness. The final contribution is empirical: I triangulate statistical methods, crisp-set qualitative comparative analysis and an extended qualitative comparison of two countries (Argentina and Chile) along three policy areas (health, citizen security and economic regulation) to provide a rich analysis of the influence the different dimensions of state capacity have on each policy effectiveness dimension. My results suggest, firstly, that state capacity differences are indeed large and important for explaining within-region differences in effectiveness; secondly, that the use of this disaggregated approach provides important theoretical and empirical payoffs for understanding the multiple ways in which states affect outcomes; and thirdly, that differentiating ‘institutions as organizations’ (such as the state) from the standard understanding of ‘institutions as rules’ allows us to improve on standard institutionalist accounts of the influence of politics on development.

Studies of terrorism have explored a number of factors thought to drive the phenomenon. Authors often tie socioeconomic development to reducing terrorism. Among structural explanations of terrorism, however, authors generally neglect the effect of gender inequality, though studies show that gender inequality increases the risk of international and civil conflict. Therefore I explore the impact of gender inequality in important socioeconomic issues on terrorism for 143 countries from 1998-2009. I argue that socioeconomic gender inequality reflects poor state capacity, resulting in grievances that contribute to domestic non-suicide and suicide terrorism. I study gender inequality in the areas of education, labor participation, and life expectancy. Results indicate that education and life expectancy inequality increase the risk of terrorism, while labor inequality is unrelated. While the time frame and data used in this study limit generalizability, results indicate that states should provide socioeconomic gender parity to reduce the risk of domestic terrorism.

A trajetória de planejamento governamental no Brasil tem sido caracterizada por uma sucessão de esforços diversos, desde os primeiros planos de desenvolvimento, na década de 1930, até a recente sistemática de planejamento e orçamento, instituída na Constituição Federal de 1988. Na esfera municipal, a experiência ainda incipiente se soma a uma série de desafios específicos, associados a um panorama de incapacidades técnicas, administrativas, financeiras, políticas e institucionais. Diante de semelhante realidade, neste trabalho, analisa-se o processo de planejamento governamental, em lócus municipal, pela perspectiva das capacidades estatais. Para tanto, inicialmente estabeleceram-se elementos de inter-relação entre dois segmentos distintos da literatura - planejamento governamental e capacidades estatais -, culminando na formulação de um quadro conceitual de análise, a título de referencial teórico. Em seguida, foram descritas as principais etapas do ciclo do Plano Plurianual 2014-2017 e da formulação do Plano Plurianual 2018-2021, em Osasco, a partir de informações coletadas em documentos e em entrevistas semiestruturadas com diversos atores-chave, entre políticos, dirigentes públicos e técnicos. A escolha do caso se deve ao reconhecimento que a literatura doméstica oferece à experiência do município. Por fim, identificando capacidades estatais construídas, desenvolvidas ou mobilizadas no período, analisou-se a sua influência nas diversas fases do processo de planejamento governamental / The trajectory of governmental planning in Brazil has been characterized by a succession of diverse efforts, from the first development plans in the 1930s to the recent planning and budgeting system established in the 1988 Federal Constitution. At the municipal sphere, an still incipient experience adds up to a series of specific challenges associated with a panorama of technical, administrative, financial, political and institutional incapacities. In view of this reality, in this work, we investigate the process of governmental planning, in a municipal locus, by the analytical perspective of state capacity. In order to do so, it was initially established elements of interrelation between two distinct segments of the literature - governmental planning and state capacity -, culminating in the formulation of a conceptual frame of analysis, as a theoretical reference. Then, the main stages of the 2014-2017 Pluriannual Plan cycle and the formulation of the 2018-2021 Pluriannual Plan in Osasco were described, based on information collected in documents and semi-structured interviews with several key actors, among politicians, public managers and technicians. The choice of the case is due to the recognition that the domestic literature offers to the experience of the municipality. Finally, identifying state capacities built, developed or mobilized in the period, we analyze its influence in the various phases of the governmental planning process.

A presente pesquisa teve como objeto de estudo o processo de implantação do Sistema Metroviário de Salvador e Lauro de Freitas, buscando investigar as condicionantes da ação estatal para construir esta infraestrutura metroviária. Este trabalho parte do ambiente institucional instaurado a partir da redemocratização do Brasil em 1988 para a produção de políticas públicas, tomando como premissas o presidencialismo de coalizões, o novo regime federativo, o fortalecimento dos órgãos de controle da administração pública e a necessidade de participação social nos processos decisórios. Olhando para as estruturas criadas para a produção desta política de infraestrutura urbana, este trabalho teve a pretensão de explicar como os arranjos institucionais de políticas públicas dotam o Estado de poder para agir, isto é, como eles favorecem ou dificultam a formação de capacidades estatais para implantação de infraestrutura metroviária. Para tanto, considerou-se o período de construção do Sistema Metroviário de Salvador e Lauro de Freitas até o momento de sua inauguração (1997-2014), dividindo este objeto em três fases. O primeiro período (1997-2005) inaugura um modelo de cogestão entre a administração do Município de Salvador e a administração federal com vistas ao gerenciamento das obras para a implantação do metrô. De outro modo, a segunda etapa (2005-2011) é caracterizada pelo protagonismo quase que exclusivo desta administração municipal na condução desta política. Por fim, a terceira fase (2011-2014) é marcada pela transferência do projeto do metrô ao Estado da Bahia, contexto no qual esta política passa a ter escala metropolitana e a ser implementada por meio de uma parceria público-privada. Com base em fontes documentais, especialmente informações produzidas por instituições envolvidas nesta política, e na realização de entrevistas semiestruturadas, esta pesquisa analisou como atributos de política pública foram mobilizados em cada uma destas fases no sentido de produzir ação para o desenvolvimento desta infraestrutura. A análise qualitativa dos dados sugere que o desenho do arranjo institucional e as suas alterações influenciam a disponibilidade e a mobilização de recursos, competências e instrumentos de políticas públicas para a produção de eficácia e legitimidade, isto é, para criar autonomia e inserção da ação estatal / This research aims to study the construction process of the metro system in the Brazilian cities of Salvador and Lauro de Freitas, investigating the constraints of state agency to build this metro infrastructure. This work starts from the institutional environment to develop public policies, established by the democratization of Brazil in 1988, based on the presidential system of coalitions, the new federative regime, the strengthening control agencies and the relevance of social participation in the decision-making processes. Looking at the structures created to produce this urban infrastructure policy, this research tried to explain how institutional arrangements of public policies condition state agency, in other words, how they enhance or undermine the formation of policy capacities to deliver metro infrastructure. For this purpose, the period of construction of Salvador and Lauro de Freitas Metro System was considered until its inauguration (1997-2014), dividing this object into three phases. The first period (1997- 2005) inaugurates a model of co-management between the administration of the municipality of Salvador and the federal administration in order to manage the works. Otherwise, the second stage (2005-2011) is characterized by the predominant role of the municipal administration in the steering of this policy. Finally, the third phase (2011-2014) is marked by the transfer of this project to the state of Bahia, a context in which this policy adopted a metropolitan scale and an implementation through a public-private partnership. Based on document sources, especially qualitative data produced by organizations involved in this policy, and semi-structured interviews, this research analysed how policy attributes were mobilized in each of these three phases in order to generate state agency to build this urban infrastructure. The qualitative analysis of the data suggests that the design of institutional arrangements and its changes influence the availability and mobilization of resources, competences and policy instruments to the promotion of efficacy and legitimacy in this policy, in other words, to increase autonomy and embeddedness of state action

As Tecnologias da Informação e Comunicação (TICs) vêm sendo utilizadas massivamente em processos participativos realizados por governos de diferentes partes do mundo e também no Brasil. No entanto, tais iniciativas carecem de estudos com viés da administração e gestão pública. A pesquisa analisa este fenômeno sob a ótica de capacidades de governo de maneira articulada ao projeto político e à governabilidade do sistema. A pesquisa identifica quais as capacidades políticas, institucionais, técnicas e administrativas relacionadas à utilização de TICs em processos de participação social. A partir de um referencial teórico-conceitual multidisciplinar, a pesquisa lança mão da metodologia de estudo de caso da consulta pública online do Marco Civil da Internet para a identificação de capacidades. Desenvolve, para essa análise, o conceito próprio de Capacidades de Governo relacionadas ao uso de TICs em Processos de Participação Social (CGTPS) e aponta as principais condicionantes do desenvolvimento, gestão e implementação desse tipo de iniciativa no governo brasileiro. A pesquisa propugna pela aplicabilidade da ótica de capacidades de governo para a análise da utilização de TICs em ferramentas de participação social, bem como pelo necessário fortalecimento de capacidades específicas para a consolidação e melhoria desse tipo de iniciativa. Por fim, aponta desafios e possibilidades a respeito da criação de tecnologia e inovação no setor público em ações de participação social / Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) have been used massively in participatory processes undertaken by governments in different parts of the world and also in Brazil. However, these initiatives lack studies which take into account an administration and public management slant. The research analyzes this phenomenon from the perspective of state capacity in an articulated way with the government project and the system governability. The research identifies which political, institutional, technical and administrative capacities are related to the use of ICT in participatory processes. Having the construction of a multidisciplinary theoretical and conceptual framework as a starting point, the research then applies the case study methodology to the online public consultation of Brazilian Internet Civil Rights Law aiming at the identification of state capacities. It also develops the concept of State Capacities related to the use of ICT in Participatory Processes (SCIPP) and outlines the main constraints to the development, management and implementation of this type of initiative in the Brazilian government. The research concludes that it is possible to apply a state capacity perspective to the analysis of the use of ICT in participatory tools. It also points toward the necessity of strengthening specific capacities for the consolidation and improvement of this type of initiative. Finally, it points out challenges and opportunities to the creation of technology and innovation in the public sector regarding participatory actions

Esta dissertação buscou contribuir para o debate sobre as políticas urbanas em São Paulo, a partir da lente analítica das capacidades estatais. Os estudos urbanos brasileiros, influenciados pelo marxismo urbano, contribuíram para o entendimento sobre o papel das forças capitalistas sobre a produção das cidades brasileiras. Entretanto, poucos estudos se dedicaram a entender os interesses do Estado na construção do espaço urbano. A ótica das capacidades estatais permite adentrar o aparelho estatal e entender como as políticas, atores e recursos mobilizados pelo Estado refletem seus próprios interesses. As capacidades estatais são reforçadas pela abordagem institucional, sobretudo do Neoinstitucionalismo Histórico, mas também pela perspectiva situacional de Carlos Matus. A metodologia adotada consiste em uma pesquisa qualitativa, baseada no estudo de caso da Secretaria Municipal de Licenciamento (SEL) de São Paulo, com recorte temporal de 2013 e 2016. A escolha por estudar as capacidades mobilizadas pela Prefeitura Municipal de São Paulo, no âmbito da SEL, se deve pela forte relação construída entre atores estatais e não estatais em torno do licenciamento urbano de São Paulo. A pesquisa de campo consistiu em análise documental e em entrevistas qualitativas com atores envolvidos no processo de criação e operacionalização da SEL. A análise dos resultados foi baseada na análise temática dos dados coletados. A perspectiva situacional de Carlos Matus permitiu a análise do caso dentro de um contexto político específico. Por fim, conclui-se que a mobilização de capacidades estatais no âmbito da SEL, refletem a tentativa do governo municipal de São Paulo de ter um maior controle sobre o licenciamento urbano mesmo que essa tentativa não signifique uma mudança no status quo da produção capitalista da cidade / This dissertation sought to contribute to the debate on urban policies in the city of São Paulo, based on the analytical lens of state capacity. Brazilian urban studies, influenced by urban Marxism, contributed to the understanding of the role of capitalist forces in the production of Brazilian cities. However, few studies have focused on understanding the interests of State in the construction of urban space. The perspective of state capacity allows us to enter the state apparatus and understand how the public policies, actors and resources mobilized by the State reflect its own interests. State capacities are reinforced by the institutional approach, especially from the historical Neoinstitutionalism. But also from the situational approach developed by Carlos Matus. The method adopted is a qualitative research, based on the case study of the Municipal Licensing Department of the city of São Paulo (Brazil), between 2013 and 2016. The choice to study the capacities mobilized by the São Paulo City Hall surroundings the Municipal Licensing Department is based on the strong relationship built between state and non-state actors in the urban licensing of São Paulo. The field research consisted of documental includes documental analysis and qualitative interviews with actors involved in the process of creation and operationalization of Municipal Licensing Department. The analysis of the results was based on the thematic analysis of the collected data. The situational approach of Carlos Matus allowed the case analysis within a specific political context. Finally, the conclusion is the mobilization of state capacities reflects the attempt of the municipal government of São Paulo to have a greater control over urban licensing process even if this attempt does not mean a change in the status quo of capitalist production of the city