Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2001. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Academics, analysts and investors have always been intrigued by, and have always
sought to identify with certainty, factors that determine investment returns and share
price movements. In 1953 Maurice Kendall, following on the work of Louis Bachelier,
made the revelation that share price movements followed a random pattern, i.e. they
could not be predicted with certainty.
Through continual research, two schools of thought emerged - fundamental and
technical analysis. The fundamentalists' perspective is that through thorough due
diligence analysis of current and historical data, one will be able to identify good
investment prospects.The latter stipulates that future price movements can be predicted
from previous price movements, i.e. historical patterns replicate themselves over time.
The random walk theory suggested by Kendall was followed by the Capital Asset Pricing
Model (CAPM) as developed and refined by Sharpe (1964), Lintner (1965) and Black
(1972). The CAPMrecognised risk (beta) as the key explanatory variable of returns. The
CAPMremains the backbone of modern financial theory and is the basis against which all
new developmentsare measured.
Subsequent studies have attempted to find other explanatory variables of return other
than beta. Banz (1981) found evidence of a relationship between size and returns later
referred to as the size effect. Chen (1981 and 1983) found that after adjusting for risk
factors, the size effect did not yield high returns adequately, thus challenging Banz's
findings.
In 1985, Chan, Chen and Hsieh using macro and micro economic variables found that
given more accurate estimates of beta, no sized-based differences in returns could be
observed. Reinganumin 1981 found evidence of high earnings-price (EjP) shares yielding
abnormally high returns. He further found a strong relationship between size and earnings-to-price (EjP) ratio. Bhandari (1988) suggested that in addition to beta and size,
leverage also played an important explanatory role of returns.
Related studies by Basu (1977), Chan, Hamao and Lakonishok (1991) and Jegadeesh
(1992) found a multi-variable explanation of returns - market equity, beta, EjP ratio, size
and other non-market factors. The combination of these factors led to the conclusion that
the CAPM model had been misspecified.
Fama and French (1992 and 1995) expanded the research and sought to establish the
multi-dimensionality of beta. They found, inter alia, that equities with a high book value
vis-a-vis their price realised higher returns than their counterparts. They further found
profitability to be positively related to size. This led to a new ratio in financial analysis,
the price book ratio (PB).
The PB ratio has never emerged as a prominent analytical tool in the financial sector and
has historically been superseded by the price earnings (PE) ratio.
The author therefore seeks to establish the raison d' etre for the status quo by
undertaking an empirical study of the JSE Securities Exchange for the period commencing
1989 and ending 1998. Using financial data obtainable from annual financial statements,
the author proceeded to calculate PE and PB ratios.
Tracing the mathematical derivation of the two ratios and using the Pearson correlation
coefficient, trend analysis and the Spearman Rank correlation test, the author found that
there exists prima facie evidence to suggest that the PE ratio could be used as a proxy
for the PB ratio. This offers a partial explanation of the inconspicuous role of the PB ratio
as an explanatory tool. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Akademici, analiste en beleggers stel steeds belang in en strewe om faktore wat
beleggingsopbrengste en aandeleprysbewegings bepaal, met sekerheid te identifiseer. In
1953 het Maurice Kendal, gebaseer op die werk van Louis Bachelier, getoon dat
aandelepryse 'n ewekansige patroon volg en as gevolg hiervan nie met sekerheid
voorspel kan word nie.
Navorsing het twee denkrigtings tot gevolg gehad naamlik fundamentele ontleding en
tegniese analise. Fundamentele ontleding veronderstel dat winsgewende
beleggingsgeleenthede vanuit 'n deeglik oorweegde impak analise van huidige en
historiese data gemaak kan word. Tegniese analise stel voor dat toekomstige
prysbewegings uit vorige prysbewegings afgelei en voorspel kan word, óf anders gestel,
dat patrone hulself oor 'n sekere periode herhaal.
Die stogastiese lopie teorie van Kendall is gevolg deur die markpryswaarderingsmodel
(MPM) wat deur Sharpe (1964), Lintner (1965) en Black (1972) ontwikkel en verfyn is.
Die MPM stel risiko (beta) as 'n sentrale veranderlike wat opbrengste voorspel. Die MPM
vorm steeds die primêre uitgangspunt van finansiële teorie en die basis waaraan nuwe
ontwikkelings gemeet word.
Voortspruitend uit die voorafgaande studies, is daar gepoog om verdere veranderlikes
anders as beta te ondersoek wat opbrengste voorspel. Banz (1981) toon aan dat daar 'n
verhouding bestaan tussen grootte en opbrengste - naamlik die grootte-effek. Chen
(1981 en 1983) het die gevolgtrekking gemaak dat die grootte-effek nie genoegsame hoë
opbrengste lewer nadat risikofaktore in berekening gebring is nie. Gevolglik is Banz se
bevindinge bevraagteken.
In 1985 het Chan, Chen en Hsieh deur die gebruik van makro en mikro-ekonomiese
veranderlikes bevind dat, gegewe 'n meer akkurate bepaling van beta, geen grootte
gebaseerde opbrengste waargeneem kon word nie. Reinganum (1981) bevind dat
bewyse bestaan dat aandele met hoë verdienste-prys abnormaal hoë opbrengste getoon het.
Sterk verhoudings tussen grootte en die aandeel se prysverdienste verhouding is
waargeneem. Bhandari (1988), in verdere navorsing in hierdie verband, stel dat in
aanvulling tot die gebruik van die beta-koëffisient en grootte, hefboomwerking ook 'n
belangrike bydrae lewer in die bepaling van opbrengste.
Verbandhoudende studies deur Basu (1977), Chan, Hamao en Lakonishok (1991) en
Jegadeesh (1992) stel dat opbrengste verduidelik kan word aan die hand van verskeie
veranderlikes, naamlik markekwiteit, beta, prysverdienste verhouding, grootte en ander
nie-markverwante faktore. Die kombinering van hierdie faktore het gelei tot die
gevolgtrekking dat die MPM model verkeerd gespesifiseerd was.
Fama en French (1992 en 1995) se navorsing poog om die multi-dimensionaliteit van
beta te bepaal. Hulle bevind onder andere dat aandele wat 'n hoë boekwaarde teenoor
prys, 'n hoër verdienste of opbrengs oplewer as ander aandele. Verder is bevind dat 'n
positiewe korrelasie tussen winsgewendheid en grootte bestaan. Dit het gelei tot 'n
nuwe verhouding in finansiële analise, naamlik die prys-tot-boek verhouding (PB).
Die PB-verhouding het egter nooit in die finansiële sektor gerealiseer as 'n prominente
analitiese metode nie en word histories deur die prysverdienste verhouding oorskadu.
Die skrywer wil gevolglik die raison d' etre vasstel vir die status quo deur 'n empiriese
studie van die Johannesburgse Effektebeurs vir die periode 1989 tot 1998 te onderneem.
Deur jaarlikse finansiële state te ontleed, is die prysverdienste en prys-tot-boek
verhoudings bereken.
Deur 'n wiskundige afleiding van die twee verhoudings te maak, die Pearson
korrelasiekoëffisient, tendensanalise en die Spearman rang korrelasiekoëffisienttoets te
gebruik, het die skrywer bevind dat daar prima facie getuienis bestaan dat die
prysverdienste verhouding ook gebruik kan word as 'n ekwivalent vir die prys-tot-boek
verhouding. Dit bied 'n gedeeltelike verklaring van die ontoereikende rol van die prys-tot-
boek verhouding as 'n verklarende veranderlike.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:sun/oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/52143 |
| Date | 12 1900 |
| Creators | Luthuli, Sandile |
| Contributors | Hamman, W. D., Vd M Smit, E., Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic & Management Sciences . Graduate School of Business . |
| Publisher | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| Source Sets | South African National ETD Portal |
| Language | en_ZA |
| Detected Language | Unknown |
| Type | Thesis |
| Format | 94 p. |
| Rights | Stellenbosch University |
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